Undeclared activities

The response of the Agency and its Board of Governors to the Iraqi set-back was, in fact, both prompt and effective. In little more than six months after conclusion of the Gulf War, the Board had reaffirmed that the Agency s right and obligation to apply safeguards to all activities extended to concealed or undeclared activities as well as those that were... 

Notwithstanding the Iraqi lesson learned that the possibility of undeclared nuclear activities must be taken seriously and their possible existence sought out, the concern with undeclared activities as a proliferation risk is not new and their possible existence has always been recognized, indeed, presumed, in ary serious analysis of safeguards. Even purified plutonium or highly enriched uranium metals are harmless in bulk form. Further steps, specifically fabrication into weapons components, are necessary before these materials can result in proliferation and these steps, while perhaps not demanding, are not trivial. They are necessarily presumed to exist if the diversion of separated plutonium or HEU is discovered, since no reliable means for their detection are available. 

The basic point is that, asa tool for the detection or even raising suspicion of undeclared activities, the provision of information by inspected states on their own activities, no matter how carefully and detailed requests are framed, must be of limited value. 

Recent developments dedicated to further improving the IAEA s capability to detect undeclared nuclear activities are desirable and should be implemented. However, undue concentration on implementation of the Protocol could undermine the effectiveness of classical safeguards on declared activities and could further weaken the Agency s ability to make use of its strong existing rights to deal with undeclared activities when necessary, especially in countries that do not accept the Protocol. 

At the Agency s laboratories in Seibersdorf, Austria, scientists and technicians have focused their efforts on the measurement and analysis of hundreds of samples collected during inspections. They include smear samples taken from various sites in Iraq to detect potential undeclared nuclear activities samples of uranium and plutonium compounds samples of construction materials such as graphite, steel, and beryllium and samples of soil, vegetation, water, rocks, and ores (see Tables 11.7 and 11.8). The results helped inspectors to map the Iraqi nuclear programme, both with respect to declared and undeclared activities. 

From the IAEA safeguards point of view, there are two options for a proliferation in carrying out undeclared activities ... 

Before looking separately at the detection of plutonium and HEU production, there are some general considerations which apply to both. Some of the longer lived isotopes of interest may be detected in the environment even in the absence of undeclared activities. Weapons-testing fallout and (declared) nuclear industrial activities can both... 

In order to be able to estimate the releases resulting from undeclared activities one should consider releases from the declared sites. As an example we consider here Sellafield reprocessing plant in the UK. 

Environmental sampling Environmental samples, mainly swipes taken from inside or outside surfaces at facilities or any other location, analyzed in specialized laboratories for signatures of potential undeclared activities... 

LIBS Laser + spectrophotometer Confirming past nuclear activities and absence of undeclared activities by trace analysis Attribute... 

Nuclear forensics also plays a role with regard to the processing of uranium ore concentrates in the UCF and fabrication of uraninm oxide for fueling nuclear reactors or of uranium hexafluoride for isotope enrichment facilities. Characterization of the nuclear materials can detect unauthorized operations and partially ascertain that no undeclared activities are taking place but one shonld always bear in mind that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. In some cases, relevant information may be obtained from bulk samples but highly significant details may be found in analysis of single particles. Some examples will be presented here, but more details are discussed in Section 5.4. 

Methods for bulk analysis and particle analysis of nuclear materials for detection of undeclared activities were described in a review article (Piksaikin et al. 2006). The bulk detection methods included radiometry (alpha, beta, and gamma spectrometry) based on the natural decay of the radionuclides, including the use of 234Th/23°Th gamma activity ratio for age determination (see detailed discussion later) and ratio that should be about 21 for undisturbed ores higher in mining... 

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