Risk assessment dynamic nature

There is at least one major area of activity pertaining directly to the environment for which the reader will seek in vain. The complexity of environmental problems and the availability of personal computers have led to extensive studies on models of varying sophistication. A discussion and evaluation of these lie well beyond the competence of an old-fashioned experimentalist this gap is left for others to fill but attention is drawn to a review that covers recent developments in the application of models to the risk assessment of xenobiotics (Barnthouse 1992), a book (Mackay 1991) that is devoted to the problem of partition in terms of fugacity — a useful term taken over from classical thermodynamics — and a chapter in the book by Schwarzenbach et al. (1993). Some superficial comments are, however, presented in Section 3.5.5 in an attempt to provide an overview of the dissemination of xenobiotics in natural ecosystems. It should also be noted that pharmacokinetic models have a valuable place in assessing the dynamics of uptake and elimination of xenobiotics in biota, and a single example (Clark et al. 1987) is noted parenthetically in another context in Section 3.1.1. In similar vein, statistical procedures for assessing community effects are only superficially noted in Section 7.4. Examples of the application of cluster analysis to analyze bacterial populations of interest in the bioremediation of contaminated sites are given in Section 8.2.6.2. 

Matrix models are sets of mostly linear difference equations. Each equation describes the dynamics of 1 class of individuals. Matrix models are based on the fundamental observation that demographic rates, that is, fecundity and mortality, are not constant throughout an organism s life cycle but depend on age, developmental stage, or size. Ecological interactions, natural disturbances, or pesticide applications usually will affect different classes of individuals in a different way, which can have important implications for population dynamics and risk. In the following, I will only consider age-structured models, but the rationale of the other types of matrix models is the same. For an example of this approach applied to pesticide risk assessment, see Stark (Chapter 5). 

Cox (2006) argues for the need for simplifying the traditional quantitative risk assessments, primarily because of the uncertainty, complexity and dynamic nature of what is being analysed. 

This initial and perhaps most important part of the assessment defines the nature and scope of the ERA, describes the sources of potential risk ( stressors ), identifies the ecological resources at risk ( end-points ), considers the nature of the ecological impacts in relation to the stressors, and produces a conceptual model of the overall assessment. Thus, problem formulation essentially encapsulates the entire ERA process. Execution of this step requires collaboration among risk managers and risk assessors to define the assessment objectives and develop the corresponding conceptual model. This model, like most, should be viewed as dynamic and subject to change throughout the ERA in relation to modifications to the objectives and the development of new data and information. 

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