Near-miss theory

Irradiation destroys bacteria primarily by disrupting the chromosomal DNA in individual cells. A second mode of action is the near-miss theory, where a photon of energy passes very close to the DNA and forms a... 

Over the years, researchers around the world have investigated the near miss theory and have compiled numerous accident ratios. They have researched the ratio between the near miss incidents, accidents causing damage, minor injuries, and serious injuries. Most of the research has indicated that there are more near miss incidents that have no visible sign of loss than injury- or damage-producing accidents. 

From the domino theory onward, it has become apparent that there are always less severe precursors to an incident. These can he called near hits, near misses, or close calls. For every incident labeled a near miss, more... 

Another fallacy somewhat related to the fear of discipline is that getting rid of the incident-prone individuals will prevent future incidents. Studies have shown that fewer than 20% of the incidents involved a repeater.O) The incident proneness theory is generally discredited as a flawed incident causation theory, ft is probably more likely that repeaters are just less adept at hiding near misses and incidents or perhaps they are more proactive or open about fixing the problems when they are involved. 

The 4-hour sessions on the theory of near-miss incidents and how to use the booklet to report these incidents were scheduled and oversubscribed for the first 2 weeks. We had to turn employees away on a number of occasions, as the training room was... 

A Scientific Approach. His theory predicts that for every 300 near-miss incidents there will be 29 minor... 

Most people involved with workplace safety are aware of the iceberg theory, the safety triangle, or its correct terminology, the accident ratio. For every recorded injury or loss sitting above the surface, there are many unrecorded near miss incidents submerged below the surface. This was first proposed by H. W. Heinrich in 1931 when he published his 1 29 300 ratios. 

In 1974-1975, the Tye-Pearson theory was conducted on behalf of the British Safety Council and was based on a study of almost 1 million accidents in Britain (Model 2.2). The ratio showed that for every 1 serious injury experienced, 3 minor injuries occurred, 50 first aid injuries took place, 80 accidents caused damage, and there were in excess of 400 near miss incidents. The study was concluded by stating that ... 

Once the system has matured, the investigation can be extended to the high/ medium ranked near miss incidents and other reports that warrant investigation. Although theory dictates that all deviations should be investigated, in practice, this cannot happen and focus should be on the high risk situations reported. Admittedly some form of follow up and review of all events must occur, but not necessarily a full investigation. 

Despite these major findings, near miss incidents have mostly been overlooked in industry despite history of major-loss events confirming the theory that there are many near misses or warnings before the occurrence of major accidental losses. Near miss incidents are truly the foundation of major injuries, the building blocks of accidents, and warning signs that loss is imminent. 

The safety pioneers that I have quoted in this book need to be thanked for their diligent research into one of safety s hidden secrets and for exposing what could be a key to injury reduction at the workplace—near miss recognition, reporting, and rectification. They were the propounders of the important theory that near misses are the foundation of a major injury, and, in modem terms, precursors to major accidental events. 

Both the integrative model by Smillie Ayoub (1975) and the deviation concept by Kjellen (1984a) connect the general systems theory to the sequencing and energy models of accident causation. They encompass technical, organizational and human components of the system. Various methods of system safety analysis (e.g. fault tree analysis, incidental factor analysis) support the identification of technical and human deviations as well as the analysis of the conditions and consequences of these deviations. From the discussion of near misses and conflicts it became clear that frameworks of accident causation should cover all kinds of incidents, thus becoming frameworks of incidents. 

Investigating even minor accidents thoroughly and promptly can be the key to preventing more serious accidents in the future, because, as the frequency of accidents increases, studies show that the severity of those accidents increases as well. There are various theories out there showing that for every 1 minor injury or near miss, there is an increasing number of more severe injuries, often with a high exponential increase. 

Third, in DH-type theories a reasonable shape of the coexistence curves is only obtained when dipole-ion interactions are included. FL theory that includes a DI term yields probably the best representation of the MC coexistence curve near criticality, although the critical density is still low. However, addition of the missing DD term by WS theory lowers the critical density, opposite to the need dictated by the MC results. This may caution that the good performance of FL theory is to some extent fortuitous. In... 

Nearly every inference we make with respect to any future event is more or less doubtful. If the circumstances are favourable, a forecast may be made with a greater degree of confidence than if the conditions are not so disposed. A prediction made in ignorance of the determining conditions is obviously less trustworthy than one based upon a more extensive knowledge. If a sportsman missed his bird more frequently than he hit, we could safely infer that in any future shot he would be more likely to miss than to hit. In the absence of any conventional standard of comparison, we could convey no idea of the degree of the correctness of our judgment. The theory of probability seeks to determine the amount of reason which we may have to expect any event when we have not sufficient data to determine with certainty whether it will occur or not and when the data will admit of the application of mathematical methods. 

The electron density function is given in the form of a Fourier summation (Equation 4.2). This means that electron density and hence the atoms in a structure are represented by a number of sine-waves, which are added up. The higher the number of sine-waves, the smoother and more accurate the electron density becomes. As with every Fourier summation, if terms are missing, ripples appear. Especially when some strong reflections are missing from the dataset (e.g. incomplete dataset or some reflections hidden behind the beamstop) artefactual electron density— negative or positive—can appear near heavy atom sites. The same effect can be observed with low-resolution data. An excellent description of the theory behind this effect can be found in an article by Cochran and Lipson (1966). 

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