Inflation-indexed bonds duration

From market observation we know that index-linked bonds can experience considerable volatility in prices, similar to conventional bonds, and therefore, there is an element of volatility in the real yield return of these bonds. Traditional economic theory states that the level of real interest rates is cmistant however, in practice they do vary over time. In addition, there are liquidity and supply and demand factors that affect the market prices of index-linked bonds. In this chapter, we present analytical techniques that can be applied to index-linked bonds, the duration and volatility of index-linked bonds and the concept of the real interest rate term structure. Moreover, we show the valuation of inflation-linked bonds with different cash flow structures and embedded options. 

One final point regarding duration is that it is possible to calculate a tax-adjusted duration for an index-linked bond in markets where there is a different tax treatment to indexed bonds compared to conventional bonds. In the United States market, the returns on indexed and conventional bonds are taxed in essentially the same manner, so that in similar fashion to Treasury strips, the inflation adjustment to the indexed bond s principal is taxable as it occurs, and not only on the maturity date. Therefore, in the US-indexed bonds do not offer protection against any impact of after-tax effects of high inflation. That is, Tips real yields reflect a premium for only pretax inflation risk. In the United Kingdom market however, index-linked gilts receive preferential tax treatment, so their yields... 

To obtain the price of an inflation-linked bond, it is necessary to determine the value of coupon payments and principal repayment. Inflation-linked bonds can be structured with a different cash flow indexation. As noted above, duration, tax treatment and reinvestment risk, are the main factors that affect the instrument design. For instance, index-aimuity bmids that give to the investor a fixed annuity payment and a variable element to compensate the inflation have the shortest duration and the highest reinvestment risk of aU inflation-linked bonds. Conversely, inflation-linked zero-coupon bonds have the highest duration of all inflation-linked bonds and do not have reinvestment risk. In addition, also the tax treatment affects the cash flow structure. In some bond markets, the inflation adjustment on the principal is treated as current income for tax purpose, while in other markets it is not. 

There are five basic methods of linking the cash flows from a bond to an inflation index interest indexation, capital indexation, zero-coupon indexation, annuity indexation, and current pay. Which method is chosen depends on the requirements of the issuers and of the investors they wish to attract. The principal factors considered in making this choice, according to Deacon and Derry (1998), are duration, reinvestment risk, and tax treatment. 

Capital indexation. Capital-indexed bonds have been issued in the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Their coupon rates are specified in real terms, meaning that the coupon paid guarantees the real amount. For example, if the coupon is stated as 2 percent, what the buyer really gets is 2 percent after adjustment for inflation. Each period, this rate is applied to the inflation-adjusted principal amount to produce the coupon payment amount. At maturity, the principal repayment is the product of the bond s nominal value times the cumulative change in the index since issuance. Compared with interest-indexed bonds of similar maturity, these bonds have longer durations and lower reinvestment risk. 

Annuity indexation. Indexed-annuity bonds have been issued in Australia, although not by the central government. They pay a fixed annuity payment plus a varying element that compensates for inflation. These bonds have the shortest duration and highest reinvestment risk of all index-linked debt securities. 

Zero-coupon indexation. Zero-coupon indexed bonds have been issued in Sweden. As their name implies, they pay no coupons the entire inflation adjustment occurs at maturity, applied to their redemption value. These bonds have the longest duration of all indexed securities and no reinvestment risk. 

Duration increases as coupon and yield decrease. The lower the coupon, the greater the relative weight of the cash flows received on the maturity date, and this causes duration to rise. T ong the non—plain vanilla types of bonds are some whose coupon rate varies according to an index, usually the consumer price index. Index-linked bonds generally have much lower coupons than vanilla bonds with similar maturities. This is true because they are inflation-protected, causing the real yield required to be lower than the nominal yield, but their durations tend to be higher. 

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