Grow, James

In a tiny fraction of cases, a quick formula can be used. For most cases, the analysis uses an options tree, with one leaf per possible outcome. However, this falls prey to the curse of dimensionality —the number of leaves on the tree grows exponentially in the number of risk and decision dimensions considered. Thus only a limited, simple set of situations can be optimized in this way because one has to severely limit the decisions and risks that are considered. Tools available to help automate and simplify options analysis, widely used in pharmaceutical project evaluation, include Excel addons such as R1SK [11] and more graphically based solutions such as DPL [12]. Both of these support the creation and evaluation of decision trees and of influence diagrams Figure 11.2 shows a simple example of each of these. A primer in applied decision theory is Clemen s book Making Hard Decisions, other sources may be found in the website of James Vornov, Director of Clinical Research at Guildford Pharmaceuticals, a recent convert to decision theory for options analysis [13]. 

Fifteen prominent chemical engineers first met in New York more than 60 years ago to plan a continuing literature for their rapidly growing profession. From industry came such pioneer practitioners as Leo H. Baekeland, Arthur D. Litde, Charles L. Reese, John V. N. Dorr, M. C. Whitaker, and R. S. McBride. From the universities came such eminent educators as William H. Walker, Allred H. White, D. D. Jackson, J. H. James, Warren K. Lewis, and Harry A. Curtis. H. C. Parmelee, then editor of Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, served as chairman and was joined subsequently by S. D. Kukpatrick as consulting editor. 

James, K. A. C. and Body, D. R. (1986). A nutritional evaluation of orange roughy (Hoplos-tethus atlanticus) using growing pigs. NZ J. Technol. 2, 219-223. 

James, K. A. C. and Treloar, B. P. (1984). Comparative effects of orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus) and snapper (Chrysophrys auratus) in the diets of growing rats. NZ. Sci. 27, 295-305. 

The first British settlement in North America was established in 1607 and named Jamestown, after King James i. The little tobacco-growing colony was located on the East Coast, in the region that would eventually become the state of Virginia. One of the constant debates among the Jamestown settlers was whether they should expand the colony. Tobacco growing was a very profitable enterprise, especially since labor was so cheap — the Jamestown settlers had brought the first African slaves to North America. But the settlement was surrounded by unfriendly Indians who would, of course, resist the expansion. 

King James I of England expresses a rather different opinion in his Counterblast to Tobacco, which denies the substance has any real medicinal value. The king also tries to reduce the growing popularity of smoking by taxing tobacco, a practice that is soon taken up by other European nations. 

James, D.G., Faulder, R. J. and Bartelt, R.J. (1995). Fauna and seasonal abundance of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera Nitidulidae) in four stone fruit growing regions of southeastern Australia as determined by pheromone-trapping. J. Aust. Entomol. Soc., 34, 327-333. 

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