Fatal Facts series

Condition I is obvious— with no activity of the population there should be no road deaths. Condition II goes back to Vision Zero (Tingvall, 1998) which means no fatalities in road accidents. Condition III takes account of the fact that there is a breakpoint within the series of road fatality rate numbers as a country develops. 

Data and information gathered was exploited within DaCoTA for the estimation of road traffic fatahties based on time-series analysis, as it is important to know in what direction the annual casualties are developing, and how fast this development is expected to go. The methods applied to achieve the forecasts are sophisticated statistical tools, not easily understood by non-experts [THO 13], The forecast resnlts, however, are of direct interest for road safety practitioners with all levels of statistical expertise, therefore it was decided not only to develop a technical description of the forecasting model and of the process that led to its selection for each conntry, bnt also the Country Forecast Fact Sheets pUP 12], The forecast factsheets are meant to give a relatively non-technical description of the past development of the fatalities (and of the exposure if available). The toad traffic fatalities, the traffic volume and the fatality risks are forecasted to 2020 and also forecasts according to mobihty scenarios are carried out for all 30 European countries, with exposure as most important ejqrlaining variable. If known, the (possible) reasons for the developments are shortly described. Forecasts of the road safety situation in every country include a description of the method adopted to produce these forecasts. 

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