Factorial cost estimates

The economic evaluation is an important and integral part of the overall feasibility study of the project. First, a capital cost estimate is obtained using two estimation techniques. The ratio method and factorial cost estimation techniques are used to determine separate capital cost estimates for the proposed 280 tonne/day plant. Finally an investigation into the expected return on investment from this project is performed. 

The conceptual layout of the power island was prepared to facilitate the Factory Cost estimation. As shown in Figure 2, the power island consists of 8 sections each containing 42 fuel cell modules. The module Sections are grouped with 4 Sections on each side of the centralized Power Island equipment. The footprint of the IGFC plant was found to be comparable to an IGCC plant. Recent Factory Cost Estimates have shown an SOFC power island cost of 635/kW in 2007 US dollars, meeting the DOE cost target of < 700/kW. 

The factorial method of cost estimation is often attributed to Lang (1948). The fixed capital cost of the project is given as a function of the total purchase equipment cost by the equation ... 

The cost of the purchased equipment is used as the basis of the factorial method of cost estimation and must be determined as accurately as possible. It should preferably be based on recent prices paid for similar equipment. 

The factorial method of cost estimation requires the purchase cost of the major equipment items in the process. Other fixed costs are... 

The factorial method therefore yields a capital cost estimate of Capital Cost = Fixed Costs + Working Capital = AS1 1 million + As2.45 million = AS1 3.5 million... 

The ratio method provides an estimate of AS1 2.9 million. This can be regarded as reasonably accurate ( 30%) considering the original plant cost data is 7 years old. The factorial method has produced a surprisingly similar result. This is probably due to the fact that the plant is not particularly large, and the possibility of estimation cost inaccuracies is reduced. The estimate of AS1 3.5 million determined by the factorial cost technique should therefore also be regarded as an acceptably accurate value. 

The cost estimate on the construction of a disinfestation hut for the fur and garment factories of Lublin consists of 27 sections, and presents a total cost of 140,000 Zloty (Polish currency). Section 18 states ... 

The factorial method of cost estimation is based on purchased equipment costs and therefore requires good estimates for equipment costs. Costs of single pieces of equipment are also often needed for minor revamp and de-bottlenecking projects. 

Hereafter we present a simpler method, used in preliminary cost estimations, known as percentage of delivered-equipment cost (Peters Timmerhaus, 1991), or detailed factorial method (Sinnott, 1993). The fundamental element is the cost of basic equipment identified at the conceptual design stage, which includes the main items as reactors, mixers, separators, heat exchangers, intermediate storage vessels, compressors, pumps, filters, centrifuges, furnaces, dryers, etc. 

Miscellaneous. Materials to be considered in cost estimation under the miscellaneous category are factory supplies, including such items as gaskets, lubricants, paint, test chemicals, janitor supplies, rags, etc. Unless demands for any of these items are excessively high, a cost alloca-... 

Bayer took up the BASF process and also promised to build a new plant. The state financed this and other plants. When Bayer presented a cost estimate it was considerably higher than those from other companies, and Fischer had to convince Duisberg to reduce costs. Just a month later Duisberg reported that the plant was under construction. He also generally described the increase of production. The change to war materials was going on very rapidly, and the Bayer aniline factory was now a plant for delivery of war products. Duisberg told Fischer that 400 tons of trinitrotoluene and 250 tons of trinitroanisole would be produced monthly. °... 

Although synthetic lubrication oil production amounts to only about 2% of the total market, volume has been increasing rapidly (67). Growth rates of the order of 20% per year for poly( a-olefin)s, 10% for polybutenes, and 8% for esters (28) reflect increasing automotive use and these increases would accelerate if synthetics were adopted for factory fill of engines by automotive manufacturers. The estimated production of poly( a-olefin)s for lubricants appears to be approximately 100,000 m /yr, esters 75,000, poly(alkylene glycol)s 42,000, polybutenes 38,000, phosphates 20,000, and dialkyl benzene 18,000 (28,67). The higher costs reflected in Table 18 (18,28) have restricted the volume of siUcones, chlorotrifluoroethylene, perfluoroalkylpolyethers, and polyphenyl ethers. 

The basis of the Factorial Methods is to use quotes or estimates of the delivered costs of the MPls and to multiply these up by so-called installation to obtain a total installed cost [40, 41]. 

The work in my commando, being highly skilled, was not too rough, but in other parts of the buna plant—lor instance, there was a 300-foot-high chimney in the buna factory, and we estimated that it cost the lives of 300 inmates who died of exhaustion.. . . The working conditions were so hard that in the years from 1943 to 1945, a complete turnover of inmates occurred three times. 

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