Expectance

To illustrate, predictions were first made for a ternary system of type II, using binary data only. Figure 14 compares calculated and experimental phase behavior for the system 2,2,4-trimethylpentane-furfural-cyclohexane. UNIQUAC parameters are given in Table 4. As expected for a type II system, agreement is good. 

If there is sufficient flexibility in the choice of model and if the number of parameters is large, it is possible to fit data to within the experimental uncertainties of the measurements. If such a fit is not obtained, there is either a shortcoming of the model, greater random measurement errors than expected, or some systematic error in the measurements. 

An additional advantage derived from plotting the residuals is that it can aid in detecting a bad data point. If one of the points noticeably deviates from the trend line, it is probably due to a mistake in sampling, analysis, or reporting. The best action would be to repeat the measurement. However, this is often impractical. The alternative is to reject the datum if its occurrence is so improbable that it would not reasonably be expected to occur in the given set of experiments. 

Examples of main programs calling subroutines FLASH and ELIPS for vapor-liquid and liquid-liquid separation calculations, respectively, are described in this Appendix. These are intended only to illustrate the use of the subroutines and to provide a means of quickly evaluating their performance on systems of interest. It is expected that most users will write their own main prograns utilizing FLASH and ELIPS, and the other subroutines presented in this monograph,to suit the requirements of their separation calculations. 

For multiple reactions in which the byproduct is formed in series, the selectivity decreases as conversion increases. In this case, lower conversion than that for single reactions is expected to be appropriate. Again, the best guess at this stage is to set the conversion to 50 percent for irreversible reactions or to 50 percent of the equilibrium conversion for reversible reactions. 

Also, although there are no selectivity data for the reaction, the selectivity losses would be expected to increase with increasing conversion. Complete conversion would tend to produce unacceptable selectivity losses. Finally, the reactor volume required to give a complete conversion would be extremely large. 

In Fig. 8.3, the only cost forcing the optimal conversion hack from high values is that of the reactor. Hence, for such simple reaction systems, a high optimal conversion would he expected. This was the reason in Chap. 2 that an initial value of reactor conversion of 0.95 was chosen for simple reaction systems. 

It should be emphasized that capital cost estimates using installation factors are at best crude and at worst highly misleading. When preparing such an estimate, the designer spends most of the time on the equipment costs, which represent typically 20 to 40 percent of the total installed cost. The bulk costs (civil engineering, labor, etc.) are factored costs which lack definition. At best, this type of estimate can be expected to be accurate to 30 percent. 

Table 10.2 shows expected trends in specifications for some major products. 

Development planning and production are usually based on the expected production profile which depends strongly on the mechanism providing the driving force in the reservoir. The production profile will determine the facilities required and the number and phasing of wells to be drilled. The production profile shown in Figure 1.1 is characterised by three phases ... 

In some cases, where production is subject to high taxation, tax concessions may be negotiated, but generally host governments will expect all other means to have been investigated first ... 

It is expected that seismic iwill become even more important in determining field development strategies throughout the total field life. Indeed, many mature fields have several vintages of seismic, both 2D and 3D. 

D is basically a succession of 2D or 3D surveys repeated at intervals of time during which it is expected that some production effect has occurred, of sufficient magnitude to effect the acoustic impedance contrast seen by the propagating waves. For example, this oould be changes in the water or gas saturation, or changes in pressure. 

In the future, it is expected to be possible to make more routine use of additional wave types, specifically shear or S waves (polarised to horizontal and vertical components) which have a transverse mode of propagation, and are sensitive to a different set of rock properties than P waves. The potential then exists for increasing the number of independent attributes measured in reflection surveys and increasing the resolution of the subsurface image. 

Originally, mud was made from clay mixed with water, a simple system. Today the preparation and treatment of drilling fluid has reached a sophistication which requires specialist knowledge. The reason for this becomes clear if we consider the properties expected. 

Casing joints are available in different grades, depending on the expected loads to which the string will be exposed during running, and the lifetime of the well. The main criteria for casing selection are ... 

If compaction occurs as a result of production careful monitoring is required. The Ekofisk Field in the Norwegian North Sea made headlines when, as a result of hydrocarbon production, the pores of the fine-grained carbonate reservoir collapsed and the platforms on the seabed started to sink. The situation was later remedied by inserting steel sections into the platform legs. Compaction effects are also an issue in the Groningen gas field in Holland where subsidence in the order of one meter is expected at the surface. 

Keywords deterministic methods, STOllP, GllP, reserves, ultimate recovery, net oil sands, area-depth and area-thickness methods, gross rock volume, expectation curves, probability of excedence curves, uncertainty, probability of success, annual reporting requirements, Monte-Carlo simulation, parametric method... 

It is common practice within oil companies to use expectation curves to express ranges of uncertainty. The relationship between probability density functions and expectation curves is a simple one. 

Figure 6.6 The probability density function and the expectation curve...

For oilfield use, the x-axis on expectation curves is typically the STOIIP, GIIP, UR, or Reserves of a field. 

Expectation curves are alternatively known as probability curves . This text will use the term expectation curve for conciseness. 

The slope of the expectation curve indicates the range of uncertainty In the parameter presented a broad expectation curve represents a large range of uncertainty, and a steep expectation curve represents a field with little uncertainty (typical of fields which have much appraisal data, or production history). 

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