Event risk

Objective Provide a basis to judge the relative likelihood (probability) and severity of various possible events. Risks can be expressed in qualitative terms (high, medium, low) based on subjective, common-sense evaluations, or in quantitative terms (numerical and statistical calculations). 

Bohn, M. P., and J. A. Lambright, Recommended Procedures for Simplified Pxiernj Event Risk Analyses, February 1988. 

Table 13.1. Comparison of selected adverse event risk ratios during treatment (all patients who received levormeloxifene are combined vs. placebo) (from Goldstein and Nanavati 2002)...

Table 17.2. Independent predictors of long-term vascular event risk in 2362 individuals with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke...

Supervised treatment of P. vivax malaria with chloroquine (600 mg on day 1, 450 mg on days 2 and 3) and primaquine (15 mg/day for 14 days) has been studied in 50 patients in a non-endemic area of Brazil in a prospective open trial (3). G6PD status was not checked. The relapse-free cure rate at 6 months was 86%. There were no important adverse events. Risk factors for relapse included lower doses of primaquine. In patients over 60 kg in weight, the dose of primaquine can fall short of recommendations (0.25-0.3 mg/kg/day), and this can contribute to the risk of relapse. 

Patients with normal aminotransferase levels should not be treated. Monitoring of this group, with treatment if disease progresses, is more advantageous than treatment, because many of these patients will not have progression of liver disease, while therapy is associated with cost and adverse event risk. 

A case-control study is a retrospective analysis it is generally easier to administer than a cohort study. Cases of diseases or events are identified. Controls and patients exposed to the treatment are selected from the source population. The exposure status of the two groups is compared using the odds ratio, an estimate of relative risk of exposure and non-exposure. Case-control studies are less expensive than cohort studies, but provide weaker empirical evidence than well-executed cohort studies. These studies are useful for identifying the relationship between drug treatments with one specific rare adverse event, or for identifying risk factors for adverse events. Risk factors can include renal and hepatic insufficiency that might modify the risk profile. 

In today s market, factors extraneous to industry fundamentals have been exerting increasing influence on sector performance. The term event risk has traditionally been used to refer to merger and acqnisition (M A) activity, and has been more issuer-specific than affecting the entire sector. However, we take a broad definition of event risk to encompass other external risks, including litigation risk, technological risk, and the like. 

A significant form of event risk is litigation risk. Once considered to be confined to the tobacco sector, litigation risk is now threatening industrial goods firms (asbestos liability) to auto manufacturers (Firestone tyre recall). In the current environment, no sector looks immnne from these types of external shocks. Technological risk affects bnsinesses that carry a substantial exposure to the future direction of technology development. The sectors that are affected consist predominantly of telecom operators and OEM. 

The secret to risk management is taking a holistic approach. The framework in Figure 2.9 gives an overview. It is not sufficient to focus only on the high probability, high impact events. Risks in all four quadrants need to be managed as a part of normal operations. 

Risk Ranking 1 Hazard or accident scenario poses a high risk to the pubiic, collocated workers, workers, or the environment. Immediate actions should be taken by the facility manager to reduce the potential consequences or likelihood of these events. Risk Ranking 1 events are analyzed quantitatively in the accident analysis. 

Acceptable risk is strongly related with the acceptable probability of failure and the acceptable amount of losses. There is general agreement in the literature and in regulatory circles that risk should at least be judged from two points of view in relation to inundation consequences. The first point of view concerns the risk assessment by society on a national level which relates to the number of casualties due to a certain hazardous event. Risk is defined as the relation between frequency and the number of people suffering from a specified level of harm in a given population from the realisation of specified hazards . If the specified level of harm is limited to loss of life, the societal risk may be modelled by the frequency of exceedance curve of the niunber of deaths, FN-curve. Secondly, the... 

Full risk record can be a vector of the number of ICF events, risk pairs ( ICF, Rt C, t ). 

Notification of The Health Care Organization s Officials Regarding Sentinel Events. Risk Management immediately notifies the chief of staff, the chief of the professional staff division, the vice president of medical affairs, the vice president of patient care, the CEO, and the COO of a sentinel event. 

Recall that a hazard may be an attribute of an activity, a condition, or a circumstance. The term hazard suggests there are causes for undesirable events. Risk is the likelihood of an adverse event and the potential severity that results from a hazard. 

There are many definitions for risk. Rowe defines risk as the potential for realization of unwanted, negative consequences of an event. Risk aversion is action taken to control or reduce risk. 

Tarlow, Peter E., Event Risk Management and Safety, John Wiley Sons, Inc, New York, 2002. 

This quantitative (frequency, consequence) information is used to confirm or correct the earlier qualitative assignments and ranking, and to feed into emergency response plans. Once event risks are quantified in appropriate units, this information will also lend itself to ... 

The total faeility individual risk is then the sum of aU the event risks at a receptor point. Repeating the proeess at different receptor points wUl generate a risk curve, where risk generally deereases with increasing distance from the risk source. The units of this risk measure can be expressed as the annual chance that a person living near the hazardous facility might die due to potential accidents in that facility. (The MIACC risk acceptability guidelines are for a specific receptor location and not for a specific receptor that may spend some of his or her time away from that receptor location. Hence, the risk calculation should also assume continuous exposure of the receptor.)... 

Figure 5.1 Monitoring and control of adverse event risk untimely deliveries...

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