Cocaine production

Though contained, there are indications that the supply side of this market remains adaptive. The success in the reduction of coca cultivation from 2000 to 2006 did not lead to a decline in cocaine production. In recent years, the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and better production technology, have improved coca yields, leaving cocaine production largely stable over the last few years (1,008 mt in 2004, 980 mt in 2005, 984 mt in 2006). 

If only the area under coca cultivation is considered, a small decline by 2 per cent to 157,000 hectares was reported for the year 2006. As compared to the year 2000, the area under coca cultivation in the Andean region declined by 29 per cent in Colombia, it fell by as much as 52 per cent. This progress was, however, not translated into a decline of global cocaine production, due to improved yields and production techniques. Global cocaine production is estimated to have remained basically unchanged in 2006 as compared to a year earlier or two years earlier. Following a revision of yield estimates, global production is now estimated at 984 mt. A decline in Colombia (-5 %) was compensated by increases reported from Bolivia (+18%) and Peru (+8%). 

Increases in 2005 were reported for coca leaf, cocaine, the amphetamines as well as GHB and LSD. As global cocaine production remained unchanged, the strong increase in cocaine seizures is likely to have been the exclusive result of effective and successful law enforcement. Though amphetamines seizures increased in 2005 they are still below the peak levels of 2000 and 2001. Global trafficking in amphetamines over the last five years has remained basically stable. 

Over 99 per cent of all dismantled clandestine laboratories in 2005 were in Bolivia, Colombia and Peru. This shows that almost the complete cocaine production chain, from coca paste to cocaine base and finally cocaine HCI, is located close to the cultivation areas in the three countries. An analysis by type of laboratory reveals that laboratories in Bolivia and Peru, with very few exceptions, produced coca paste and cocaine base, whereas in Colombia a substantial number of laboratories produced cocaine HCI. Preliminary figures for 2006 show a similar pattern. 

Note Colombian cocaine production estimates for 2004 and later are not directly comparable with previous years. 

Fig. 41 Annual coca bush cultivation and cocaine production in main producing countries, 1990 - 2006...

COLOMBIA - POTENTIAL COCAINE PRODUCTION, 1990 2006 (metric tons)... 

As a result, the global cocaine interception rate rose from 34 per cent in 2004 to 42 per cent in 20051, a significant increase from 20 per cent in 1995. However, yields and laboratory efficiency appear to have increased over the last few years and this may not yet be fully reflected in the current global cocaine production estimates. The result could be an overestimated global cocaine interception rate. While some adjustments in production figures may be expected in the future, there is little doubt that cocaine interception rates grew strongly in recent years. 

The global interception rate was calculated on the basis of a global cocaine production of 980 mt in 2005 and global seizures of 756 mt at street purity, which, given a global average cocaine purity of 55 per cent in 2005 (as reported by Member States to UNODC in the Annual Reports Questionnaires), would be equivalent to pure cocaine seizures of some 416 mt. 

The interception rate of the cocaine seized in Colombia was calculated on the basis of domestic cocaine production and an average purity level of cocaine of around 85 per cent. 

Based on new field research on the coca leaf yield in the Yungas of La Paz, the potential production of cocaine HCl in Bolivia in 2006 was 94 metric tons, an increase by 18 per cent compared to the revised production estimate of 80 metric tons in 2005. The increase in cocaine production is much more pronounced than the coca cultivation increase due to the fact that most of the area increase took place in Chapare, where coca leaf yields are more than twice the amount recorded in the Yungas of La Paz. 

Bolivia, potential cocaine production (metric tons), 1990 to 2006... 

In 2006, the potential production of cocaine HC1 in Colombia amounted to 610 metric tons, a decrease by 5 per cent or 30 metric tons compared to 2005. As a consequence of this decrease and simultaneous production increases in Bolivia and Peru, Colombia s share of the world cocaine production fell from 65 per cent in... 

The annual average of the farm-gate prices for coca paste, the first derivate in the cocaine production chain, changed little compared to 2005. However, the annual average hides a price increase by 38 per cent from a five-year low of 1,714,000 Colombian pesos in January... 

Based on updated information on the amount of coca leaf necessary to produce one kilogram of cocaine HC1, the total potential cocaine production in 2006 amounted to 280 metric tons, which is an increase of 8 per cent compared to 2005. While this is the highest production figure since 1998, it is still only about half the amount registered during the cocaine production peak in Peru in 1992. In 2006, Peru accounted for 28 per cent of the global cocaine production. 

The use of the concept of potential production at the country level also means that actual heroin or cocaine production is under-estimated in some countries, and over-estimated in others while the estimate for the global level should be only slightly affected by this. The calculation of potential cocaine production estimates for Peru, for instance, exceeds actual local cocaine production as some of the coca paste or coca base produced in Peru is exported to neighbouring Colombia and other countries for further processing into cocaine. Based on the same reasoning, potential cocaine production estimates for Colombia under-estimate actual cocaine production in the country. Actual cocaine manufacture in Colombia takes place from locally produced coca leaf as well as from coca base imported from Peru. 

However, most of the benefits of any success in coca eradication have probably been lost because of the new growth in cocaine production in Colombia, where drug production is now controlled mainly by leftist guerrilla groups. On the other side of the world in Afghanistan, the overthrow of the Taliban (which had suppressed heroin production) has resulted in a great increase in production of opium poppies. 

Bolivia has experienced a decline in cocaine production, from 240 metric tons in 1995 to 60 metric tons in 2001, a reduction of 75 percent. However, Bolivia s poorly controlled border regions make it a major route for transit for a Peruvian cocaine base, mainly destined for Brazil. 

---