Actuarial approach

A natural gas high pressure pipeline with a diameter of 20" (508 mm), a wall thickness of 8 mm subject to a pressure of pi = 70 bar is planned in the vicinity of a residential area. For the section passing close by this residential area a risk assessment is to be performed. This is a so-caUed risk-based analysis, since the expected frequency of the undesired event (rupture of the pipeline and gas release) is directly taken from statistical material (actuarial approach) and not determined by a detailed analysis of the engineered systems involved. 

The second method for projecting risk is the so-called actuarial approach-that is, the use of actual past experience on an overall systems basis. 

Recently, Nyman7 took a fresh look at the traditional approach presented in Figures 7.1 and 7.2, which dates back to Pauly.8 Nyman argues that Pauly overestimated the welfare loss attributable to insurance, because he unduly included the income effect on consumption, whereas it should have been subtracted to leave the price effect. The income effect to be subtracted is due to the income transfer from the healthy to the sick. The pure price effect of insurance is the change in consumption of medical care that would occur if a consumer who is already ill were to purchase a contract from an insurer to reduce the price of medical care in return for an actuarially fair premium . In order to calculate the extent of the welfare loss of the insurance - which Nyman understands as the transaction cost of the insurance itself - it would be necessary to apply the classical Slutsky equation, but in practice it has yet to be quantified. 

NST is another therapeutic option in elderly patients with AML and MDS. Two small studies suggest this is a feasible option, with actuarial OS and EES rates of 44% to 69% and 37% to 56%, respectively. " The advantage of this approach is less intensive chemotherapy with less toxicity, and the immune system providing the ongoing antUeukemia effect via GVHD/GVL mechanisms (see Chap. 134). 

Fixed atmospheric nitrogen and more especially the direct synthetic ammonia process is fast approaching the position once enjoyed by Chile nitrate, but it can never from present indications actuary achieve that position. Ammonia it is believed will always be produced as a by-product of the operation of the coke ovens. The production of by-product ammonia will increase, but it is believed its increase w lll be very slow. 

Hartwig, Robert R, Ronald C. Retterath, Tanya E. Restrepo, and William J. Kahley. 1997. Workers Compensation and Economic Cycles A Longitudinal Approach. Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society 84(161) 660-700. 

The paper by Clark (1986) brought the concept of Monte Carlo simulation applied to the assessment of hurricane losses to the actuarial community and paved the way for the foundation of the first catastrophe modeling company. Applied Insurance Research, in 1987. Clark relied on the visionary numerical approaches developed by Friedman (1975) and others. Early earthquake simulation models were simultaneously being developed in California supported by new probabilistic methods (Cornell 1968 Esteva 1970 McGuire 2008). 

Bisping M (2013) Risk transformation through capital markets. In Lane M (ed) Alternative (re)insurance strategies, 2nd edn. Risk Books, Chicago Clark K (1986) A Formal Approach to Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Management, in the Proceedings of the Casualty Actuarial Society, Vol. 73, Part 2, No. 140... 

Insurance models in actuarial sciences and financial engineering have a long history of development and wide applications in assessing underwriting risks. Popular approaches for characterizing catastrophic risk processes include a compound Poisson process (e.g., Rolski... 

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