Uncertainty Theory

In order to reduce the uncertainty in a supply chain by coordination between participants, all types of uncertainty should be firsfly accurately recognized and described. One of the theories which focus on it is uncertainty theory that is introduced in the following part. 

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Qualitative analysis methods should have well-grounded and generally adopted quantitative reliability estimations. At first the problem was formulated by N.P. Komar in 1955. Its actuality increased when test methods and identification software systems (ISS) entered the market. Metrological aspects evolution for qualitative analysis is possible only within the scope of the uncertainty theory. To estimate the result reliability while detecting a substance X it is necessary to calculate both constituents of uncertainty the probability of misidentifications and the probability of unrevealing for an actual X. There are two mutual complementary approaches to evaluate uncertainties in qualitative analysis, just as in quantitative analysis ... 

My purpose in this section is to explain why the various novel theories of uncertainty are important for science and why it is reasonable to view their use in science as a new scientific paradigm. 1 discuss several roles of these uncertainty theories in science, in particular the roles played by fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic. 

The poet Saki expressed (in his Aphorisms) the same idea in a simple, poetic way A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanations. The new uncertainty theories have also considerably greater expressive power and, consequently, they can effectively deal with a broader class of... 

Several debates, focusing primarily on the relationship between probability theory and the various novel uncertainty theories, are documented in the literature. A frequently raised issue in these debates was the... 

Responses of the second kind (to the evidence of highly successful applications of the novel uncertainty theories) are substantially different. They acknowledge that the applications concerned are successful, but question the role of the new theories in these applications. A highly visible example of a response of this kind (addressing applications of fuzzy logic) is a paper by Charles Elkan, which is entitled The Paradoxical Success of Fuzzy Lx)gic. I deem it important to examine some aspects of this paper more carefully. 

Rabonovich, S.G., Measurement Errors and Uncertainties Theory and Practice, New York, Springer, 2000, 316. 

Uncertainty theory is also referred to as probability theory, credibility theory, or reliability theory and includes fuzzy random theory, random fuzzy theory, double stochastic theory, double fiizzy theory, the dual rough theory, fiizzy rough theory, random rough theory, and rough stochastic theory. This section focuses on the probability theory and fiizzy set theory, including probability spaces, random variables, probability spaces, credibility measurement, fuzzy variable and its expected value operator, and so on. 

Liu BD, Peng J (2005) Uncertainty theory tutorial. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing Liu BD (2007) Uncertainty theory, 2nd edn. Springer, Berlin... 

A Combined Grey System Theory and Uncertainty Theory-Based Approach for Supplier Selection in Supply Chain Management. 461... 

Grey system theory Uncertainty theory Supply... 

The combined grey system theory and uncertainty theory-based approach for supplier selection is proposed to solve the multi-attribute supplier selection problem. The grey system theory is employed because ffie selection of supplier attributes... 

Although probabilistic methods offer several tools for manipulating uncertainty and partial information, methods outside of classical probability theory, under the umbrella of Generalized Information Theory (GIT), help to mathematically expand information theory beyond traditional probability (Klir 2006). Prominent uncertainty theories include probability theory, possibility theory, and evidence theory. The following presents a historical perspective and mathematical overview of these uncertainty theories. 

Sections Probability Theory, Possibility Theory, and Evidence Theory demonstrate that the formulations of other uncertainty theories were motivated by acknowledgment of different... 

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