Short-range forecast

Savijarvi H (1990) Fast radiation parameterization schemes for mesoscale and short-range forecast models. J Appl Meteorol 29 437 47... 

The medium-range forecasting of this case accurately predicted that the rainstorms would happen in the period of 9-10 June. But in the short-range forecasting, it predicted that the rainstorms would happen on 10 June. In fact, the heavy rain occurred at the daytime on 9 June. The error of the numerical model product of the 500 hPa weather systems led the forecasting error. 

Although the words forecast and prediction have similar dictionary definitions, the associated connotations are different in different disciplines of geophysics. In some instances, the words are used interchangeably. For example, the US National Weather Service has a Weather Prediction Center which issues Short Range Forecasts of weather conditions (http //www.hpc. ncep.noaa.gov/). This topic has been heavily debated in the earthquake community. The term prediction has come to mean a highly specific statement about the time, location, and magnitude of a future event, generally with very narrow... 

Short-range (1-3 day) and medium-range (3-7 day) forecasts of atmospheric air quality to indicate zones potentially dangerous for human health. 

Enviro-HIRLAM is an online coupled meteorological, chemical transport and dispersion model. It is based on a previous version HlRLAM-tracer and at its core lies DMI-HIRLAM, version 6.3.7 employed for limited area short range operational weather forecasting at DM1 (Chenevez et al. 2004). Eor a detailed description of the features in HIRLAM the reader is referred to the HIRLAM reference guide (Unden et al. 2002). 

Is the forecast for short-range, long-range, or medium-range planning purposes ... 

As John von Neumaim stated at a meeting in 1955, it is instmctive to divide the problem of atmospheric prediction into three categories depending on the time scale of prediction. In the first category, the prediction is primarily determined by the initial conditions. This is the case of short- to medium-range forecasts, which are the main topic of this article. 

Capacity decisions are based on forecasts of donand at several different levels. Long-range capacity planning needs forecasts to be made several years ahead and includes facility planning. Short- and medium-term forecasts span 2-3 years, and generally are used to determine people requironents, leasing of premises, machines and equipment, and product details. In the more inunediate short-term forecasts are used to plan, order and schedule resources on a monthly, weekly and daily basis. The shorter the time frame, the more precise the forecast must be. 

International Iron and Steel Institute, International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) Short range outlook and medium term forecast , MPT Int. 29, No. 6, 18 (Nov. 2006). 

In addition to the statistical translation of model output, the forecasters in weather services apply subjective judgments to the model forecasts. In the early days of numerical prediction, subjectively corrected forecasts often beat the score of pure model products. The subjective judgments were based on past performance of the model and comparison with other model forecasts. However, the involvement of forecasters in the daily forecast process is decreasing steadily with time. This is due to improvement in the short- to mediinn-tange prediction systems and the need for more research and development for long-range and seasonal forecasts as well as for severe storm forecasts. 

Because every potential plastics application is described by a unique set of circumstances, the degree of difficulty associated with process selection for a given component can range from intuitively obvious to very complex. Situations that involve radical product redesign, short product fife cycles, a limited tooling budget, or uncertain volume forecasts tend to make process selection more difficult, because historical precedent may have little or no relevance to the decision at hand. 

---