Rain, probability

Roofs are a basic element of shelter from inclement weather. Natural or hewn caves, including those of snow or ice, ate early evidence of human endeavors for protection from the cold, wind, rain, and sun. Nomadic people, before the benefits of agriculture had been discovered and housing schemes developed, depended on the availabiUty of natural materials to constmct shelters. Portable shelters, eg, tents, probably appeared early in history. Later, more permanent stmctures were developed from stone and brick. SaUent features depended strongly on the avadabihty of natural materials. The Babylonians used mud to form bricks and tiles that could be bonded with mortars or natural bitumen. Ancient buildings in Egypt were characterized by massive walls of stone and closely spaced columns that carried stone lintels to support a flat roof, often made of stone slabs. 

Probability in Bayesian inference is interpreted as the degree of belief in the truth of a statement. The belief must be predicated on whatever knowledge of the system we possess. That is, probability is always conditional, p(X l), where X is a hypothesis, a statement, the result of an experiment, etc., and I is any information we have on the system. Bayesian probability statements are constructed to be consistent with common sense. This can often be expressed in tenns of a fair bet. As an example, I might say that the probability that it will rain tomorrow is 75%. This can be expressed as a bet I will bet 3 that it will rain tomorrow, if you give me 4 if it does and nothing if it does not. (If I bet 3 on 4 such days, I have spent 12 I expect to win back 4 on 3 of those days, or 12). 

At the same time, I would not bet 3 on no rain in return for 4 if it does not rain. This behavior would be inconsistent, since if I did both simultaneously I would bet 6 for a certain return of only 4. Consistent betting would lead me to bet 1 on no rain in remrn for 4. It can be shown that for consistent betting behavior, only certain rules of probability are allowed, as follows. 

A welder w as constructing a new pipeline in a pipe trench, while 20 m away a slip-plate was being removed from another pipe, which had contained light oil. Although the pipe had been blown with nitrogen, it was realized that a small amount of the oil would probably spill when the joint was broken. But it w as believed that the vapor would not spread to the welders. Unfortunately, the pipe trench was flooded after heavy rain, and the oil spread across the water surface and was ignited by the welder s torch. One of the men working on the slip-plate 20 m away was badly burned and later died. 

Quite recently (2001) titanium dioxide has been used to coat "self-cleaning" windows with a very thin film about 5 x 10-6 cm thick. The titanium dioxide acts as a catalyst for the decomposition of dust and grime by solar ultraviolet light. Probably more important, it lowers surface tension so that rain water "sheets down" the window, washing away dirt. 

The rain falling on the people and the lake probably has a pH of about 5.5. Acid rain contaminated by S03 has a pH of about 3.0. 

Nitric acid occurs naturally, in traces, in the atmosphere in rain w from the electrical discharge of lightning and from nuclear expins. Indeed, the natural nitrates of the world have probably been formed by the action of naturally occurring nitric acid to the extent of 4-6 lbs of combined nitrogen per acre (Ref 30)... 

The quantity of primary production that is exported from the upper ocean is said to be equivalent to new production (18, 19) New primary production is that associated with allocthonous nutrients (i.e., those upwelled or mixed into the euphotic zone or input via rivers and rain). In order for steady state to be maintained, an equivalent flux out of the euphotic zone is required. Earlier studies (19) suggested that sediment-trap measurements of particulate organic carbon (POC) flux were equivalent to new primary production however, recently it has become clear that these measurements probably represent only a... 

Water vapour makes a sizeable contribution, and probably the largest, to radiation trapping and as the temperature increases the water vapour concentration increases. Temperature rises as a result of increased water vapour concentration and hence a mechanism for a positive feedback in the greenhouse effect that might lead to a runaway greenhouse effect. When the vapour pressure for water reaches saturation, condensation occurs and water rains out of the atmosphere this is what happens on Earth and Mars. On Venus, however, the water vapour pressure never saturates and no precipitation occurs and the global warming continues to increase. Thus Venus suffers from extreme temperatures produced by both its proximity to the Sun and the presence of water vapour and carbon dioxide in its atmosphere. 

Probability is the likelihood that an event will occur. This event is called a favorable outcome, whether in fact it is favorable to the situation or not. We find out the probability of rain in the forecast. If the probability of rain is 70%, then 70 out of 100 times it is expected to rain. The rain is considered a favorable outcome in this instance, even if rain is not desired. 

Base cations are mobilized by weathering and cation exchange reactions that neutralize acids in the watershed. They respond therefore indirectly to changes in sulphate and nitrate concentrations. In fact, if acid anion concentrations (mainly sulphate) decrease, base cations are also expected to decrease. However, in the last few years an increase of the occurrence of alkaline rain episodes (probably due to climatic effects) has been observed and it is likely that calcareous Saharan dust, rich in base cations, is responsible for it [27]. Accelerated weathering, resulting from recent climate warming may also contribute to higher base cation concentrations [28]. 

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