Quantitative risk analysis application areas

In practical applications, dispersion calculations need to be performed in topographically complex environment. Thus, solid obstacles intervening in the area dispersion should be counting in the computations. In previous validation works, it has been proved that CFD codes constitute powerful tools for complex terrain dispersion simulation providing high accuracy results with excellent visualization capabilities, which can be helpful in quantitative risk analysis applications [55]. The dominating mixing mechanism between... 

What risk means in a security context and how the risk can be expressed and managed, is a contested topic in the scholar literature (Bier Von Winterfeldt, 2007 Deisler Jr, 2002 Jore Nja, 2010 Willis, 2007). Traditional quantitative risk analysis calculates risk based on the probability of an incident multiplied with the consequences. Newer perspectives often include uncertainties not captured in the probability or the background knowledge that the traditional risk estimates are based on (Aven, 2011). According to Aven (2013), in the area of security, application of probabilities is commonly avoided it is said that they are impossible to determine and that they are of little interest as a tool to support the decision making. Often qualitative assessments are performed on the basis of judgments of actors intentions and capacities, without references to a probability scale. 

The other main application area for predictive error analysis is in chemical process quantitative risk assessment (CPQRA) as a means of identifying human errors with significant risk consequences. In most cases, the generation of error modes in CPQRA is a somewhat unsystematic process, since it only considers errors that involve the failure to perform some pre-specified function, usually in an emergency (e.g., responding to an alarm within a time interval). The fact that errors of commission can arise as a result of diagnostic failures, or that poor interface design or procedures can also induce errors is rarely considered as part of CPQRA. However, this may be due to the fact that HEA techniques are not widely known in the chemical industry. The application of error analysis in CPQRA will be discussed further in Chapter 5. 

In line with the two elements, which make up risk, the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis of plant engineered systems are treated in Chap. 9. Their results are the expected frequencies for the occurrence of the categories of Fig. 8. 1. This is followed by the description of the methods for assessing the extent of damage in Chap. 10. Chapters 11 and 12 are dedicated to two important applications, functional safety and the determination of appropriate distances between industry and residential areas. 

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