Projected nuclear growth in developing countries

The Case B scenario from [6] shows that even for cases where fossil sources continue to dominate the energy market, and where nuclear is confined to electricity production only, potential exists for 2000 GW(e) nuclear by 2050 and nearly 6000 GW(e) by 2100, see Fig. 4. The range of nuclear deployments projected from alternate studies varies from 1200 GW(e) to as high as 5000 GW(e) in 2050 [8]l For perspective, starting at -370 GW(e) nuclear capacity deployed currently [1], global nuclear deployments might grow by factors of three to ten over the next fifty years. 

EU = Central Eastern Europe LAM = Latin America MEA = Middle East North Africa AFR = Sub-Saharan Southern Africa CPA = Centrally Planned Asia China PAS = Pacific OECD (Japan, Austraha, New-Zealand) S AS = South-East Asia NAM - North America WEU = Western Europe PAU = Other Pacific FSU = Former Soviet Union 

Post 2050, Fig. 4 shows the levelling off in North America and Europe to replacements primarily, whereas in the rest of the world the deployment rate accelerates even faster. 

With several other deployment projections available (see, for example, [9]), and independent of the anticipated timeframes and scales, the conclusion is always the same — for nuclear power to play a significant role in world energy growth, it must be targeted to meet the needs of developing countries. 

In the 1950s, many and diverse applications for nuclear energy were envisioned and explored. However, over the ensuing decades only two applications came into widespread industrial use — electricity production and naval ship propulsion. Fossil fuel was abundant, cheap, and convenient, and the use of nuclear fission for diverse energy applications was simply not cost competitive with fossil-fuelled options. 

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