Potency, carcinogen risk assessment

Thorslund, T.W. and D. Farrar. 1990. Development of relative potency estimates for PAH and hydrocarbon combustion product fractions compared to benzo[a]pyrene and their use in carcinogenic risk assessment. EPA/600/R-92/134, Dept. Commerce, NTIS. 

B. Allen, K. Crump, and A. Shipp, in Carcinogen Risk Assessment New Directions in the Qualitative and Quantitative Aspects, R. W. Hart and F. D. Hoerger, Eds., Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, Cold Spring Harbor, New York, 1988, pp. 197—209. Is It Possible to Predict the Carcinogenic Potency of a Chemical in Humans Using Animal Data ... 

The carcinogenic potential of the profiled substance is qualitatively evaluated, when appropriate, using existing toxicokinetic, genotoxic, and carcinogenic data. ATSDR does not currently assess cancer potency or perform cancer risk assessments. Minimal risk levels (MRLs) for noncancer end points (if derived) and the end points from which they were derived are indicated and discussed. 

Dose-response relationships for two animal carcinogens, strikingly different in potency, are presented in Tables 6.2 and 6.3. The type of information presented in the tables is the usual starting point for risk assessments as we shall see, human exposures to these carcinogens are very much less than the NOAELs and LOAELs from the animal data. 

The quantitative dose-response assessment involves two different challenges, namely to determine the relationship between doses and the frequency of cases of cancer (i.e., potency evaluation), and to determine what statistical risk is tolerable or acceptable. This section gives a very short overview of some general aspects related to the quantitative dose-response assessment. The currently used approach by the WHO, the US-EPA, and the EU, as well as new approaches for the risk assessment of compounds that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic, are presented in Sections 6.3 and 6.4, respectively. 

The 95% confidence limits of the estimate of the linear component of the LMS model, /, can also be calculated. The 95% upper confidence limit is termed qi and is central to the US-EPA s use of the LMS model in quantitative risk assessment, as qi represents an upper bound or worst-case estimate of the dose-response relationship at low doses. It is considered a plausible upper bound, because it is unlikely that the tme dose-response relationship will have a slope higher than qi, and it is probably considerably lower and may even be zero (as would be the case if there was a threshold). Lfse of the qj as the default, therefore, may have considerable conservatism incorporated into it. The values of qi have been considered as estimates of carcinogenic potency and have been called the unit carcinogenic risk or the Carcinogen Potency Factor (CPF). 

Clearly, a sound evaluation of the total mutagenic/carcinogenic potencies of a complex mixture of POM emissions (e.g., diesel exhaust) should include not only the PEFs of the primary particle- and vapor-phase PAHs and PACs but also those of the mutagens formed in atmospheric reactions of precursor PAHs (see, for example, Arey et al. (1992), Lewtas (1993b), Atkinson and Arey (1994), Nielsen et al. (1996), Arey (1998a), and Section F). For examples of such formal scientific health risk assessments prepared by the State of California Air Resources Board and Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, see Benzo[ ]pyrene as a Toxic Air Contaminant (CARB, 1994) and Identification of Diesel Exhaust as a Toxic Air Contaminant (CARB, 1998). 

While it is obvious that human data on the carcinogenicity of a chemical should be utilized whenever th r are available, no data providing any direct measure of carcinogenic potency for man are available for most chemicals. Although an upper limit to the potency of a chemical can often be inferred horn the absence of observed cancers, this limit is usually far too high to be useful in setting exposure standards for public health purposes. For this reason, the carcinogenic risks of a substance can be assessed often only on the basis of its... 

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