Implied forward real yield

Implied forward real yield and BEI difference trades between two markets. 

Using equation 14.16, we can build a forward inflation curve provided we have the values of the index at present, as well as a set of zero-coupon bond prices of required credit quality. Following standard yield curve analysis, we may build the term structure from forward rates and therefore imply the real yield curve, or alternatively we may construct the real curve and project the forward rates. However, if we are using inflation swaps for the market price inputs, the former method is preferred because IL swaps are usually quoted in terms of a forward index value. 

Using the modified Waggoner method described in Chapter 5, the nominal spot yield curve for the gUt market in July 1999 is shown in Figure 6.5. The real term stmcture is also shown, which enables us to draw the implied forward inflation expectation curve, which is simply the difference between the first two curves. 

So, we have argued, the economics of supply and demand make the risk premium a slippery concept. Bond mathematics now makes matters worse. This new aspect centres on the issue of convexity. We know that a forward curve of implied future short-term nominal rates can be derived from the nominal government bond curve. In principle, a forward curve of implied future short-term real rates can be similarly derived from the inflation-linked bond real yield curve. These two curves, taken together, should imply a future path of inflation, if we can set aside the risk premium for the moment. Unfortunately, that is not the case. 

A more accurate approach m ht be the one used to price interest tate swaps to calculate the present values of future cash flows usit discount tates determined by the markets view on where interest rates will be at those points. These expected rates ate known as forward interest rates. Forward rates, however, are implied, and a YTM derived using them is as speculative as one calculated using the conventional formula. This is because the real market interest rate at any time is invariably different from the one implied earlier in the forward markets. So a YTM calculation made using forward rates would not equal the yield actually realized either. The zero-coupon rate, it will be demonstrated later, is the true interest tate for any term to maturity. Still, despite the limitations imposed by its underlying assumptions, the YTM is the main measure of return used in the markets. 

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