Hubbert peak

Understanding our long-term energy needs necessitates a review of reserves and estimates of reserves by fuel type. How long these reserves may last may be considered using a simple measure of reserve size, the reserve-to-production (R P) ratio, or a more complex method, the Hubbert Peak analysis. This analysis assumes production from oil fields basically follows a bell curve, where production increases until the maximum production rate is reached when half the resource has been... 

Explain the future of oil, the "Big Rollover," and the Hubbert peak theory. 

Hubbert peak theory—describes how future world petroleum production will peak and then begin the process of global decline. This decline will closely match the former rate of increase, as known oil reservoirs move to exhaustion. 

The Hubbert peak theory (when global petroleum production will peak and decline). The peak occurred in 2006 or 2007. It may be possible to increase production, but the existing global oil powers do not Intend to mount an effort to increase production. Some experts believe we could Increase our daily production rate from 85 to 90 million barrels. 

The Hubbert peak theory describes how future world petroleum production will peak and then start the process of global decline. This decline will closely match the rate of former increase, as known oil reservoirs move to exhaustion. This theory also describes a method to calculate the peak using discovery and production rates, in combination with known oil reserves. The Big Rollover is another theory that predicts how global oil production will soon peak, and worldwide production will begin to decline. 

Kenneth, S.D., Hubberts Peak The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ,... 

While the demand keeps increasing across the years, consumption of oil is faster than its discovery, thus petroleum production is decreasing and will be depleted sooner as shown. These predictions are described by Hubbert peak theory, which says that when the peak production is passed, production rates enter an exponential decline (Hubbert, 1956 Management et al., 2005). The depletion or decline process is a natural phenomenon that accompanies the development of aU nonrenewable resources. The depletion of the world s crade oil reserve, increasing cmde oil prices, and issues related to conservation have brought about renewed interest in the use of biobased materials. 

In 1956 a well-known geophysicist, M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 as it did. In 1969 Hubbert predicted that world oil production would peak in 2000. Some suggest that the peak is occurring now. Official USGS studies place the peak in 2036. 

Deffeyes KS (1981) Beyond oil the view from Hubbert s peak. Farrar Straus and Giroux, New York... 

Production Peaks, Depletion Signals [2] Lynch, M.C. Petroleum Resources Pessimism Debunked in Hubbert Model and Hubbert Modelers Assessment. Oil and Gas Journal, July 14, 2003 [3],... 

These analyses were based on methods developed by Shell Oil s M. King Hubbert in 1956. Mr. Hubbert predicted that the production of oil in the lower 48 states would peak between 1965 and 1972 and decline thereafter. At the time, the critics thought he was mad however, production within the 48 states peaked on schedule in 1970 and has declined ever since. A new book, Hubbert s Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes (ISBN 0691090866) on this subject is appearing this fall. Pre-release reviews indicate that when Hubbert s methods are applied to the current world oil supply the peak in world production will occur some time between 2004 and 2008. ... 

An alternative measure of remaining resources relies on Hubbert s Peak analysis. M. King Hubbert, an employee at the United States Geologic Survey, postulated that resource production essentially follows a classic bell-shaped curve and that production peaks once half the resource has been depleted. In 1956, Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Most people in the industry initially rejected his analysis. However, Hubbert was right - US oil production peaked exactly as predicted, reaching 9.6 mbd in 1971. Despite increased production from Alaska, US production had fallen to 5.4 mbd by 2004 (EIA 2006). 

Two methods commonly are used to assess the adequacy of existing reserves the reserve-to-production ratio and the calculation of the timing of peak production from existing fields, or Hubbert s Peak methodology. The simplest is the R P method. R P ratios for oil reserves are summarized in Table 2.3. At first glance, they suggest oil reserves will last approximately 40 years at current production rates. Of course, as world demand soars, production also will increase, lowering the R P ratio. 

Figure 2.13 illustrates the pattern of oil production in the United States from 1954 to 2003. The bell-shaped curve shows peak production occurring in the early 1970s, as initially predicted by Hubbert. 

Several experts have applied the Hubbert methodology to global oil production. Deffeyes (2001) estimated that global oil production would peak in approximately 2003 and total eventual recovery would number 2.12 trillion barrels of oil. Likewise, Campbell and Laherr re (1998), using Hubbert s first method and their low estimate of 1.8 trillion barrels of EUR, estimated a production peak in 2003. Their analysis showed that the total reserve size had little effect on the production peak year and that a higher estimate of 2.1 trillion barrels (P05) results in a peak in 2020. 

What s interesting, however, is that the two methods for evaluating remaining supplies, R P and Hubbert s Peak, are not contradictory. They simply pose two analytical viewpoints. Campbell and Laherrfere s (1998) analysis using Hubbert s curve shows global production decreasing essentially to zero in approximately 40 years, the same as the R P used to predict when the supply of oil will run out. The discrepancy in this analysis, however, is that the R P assumes constant levels of production while the bell curve assumes decreasing levels of production after the peak. 

In his book, Hubbert s Peak The Impending World Oil Shortage, Deffeyes (2001) argues that the production of anthracite coal in Pennsylvania followed the Hubbert curve. Coal production in Pennsylvania commenced in 1830 and grew exponentially until production peaked in 1920 when half of the recoverable reserves had been extracted. Production then declined, with the exception of a spike in production during World War II. By 1980 production was nearing zero. 

Deffeyes (2001) argues that this illustrates the ways in which the coal industry, which has existed for a significantly longer period of time than other energy industries, supports Hubbert s hypothesis that production follows a bell-shaped curve with a peak when approximately half the reserves have been depleted. 

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