Forecasting for Multiple Periods

So far in our discussion, we were concerned with forecasting for one period only, namely F +i, given the actual demands Dj, Dj,..D . In prachce, one has to forecast for several periods in the future. Methods for forecasting for multiple periods depend on the type of forecasting method selected—constant level, constant level with seasonality, constant level with trend or constant level with seasonality and trend. 

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Under seasonality, forecasts for multiple periods are given as follows ... 

Computer skills, since demand forecasts are often need to be done at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level for multiple periods of time, which usually generate tens or hundreds of thousands of entities. 

The administrative costs of subsequent NAPs are likely to be substantially smaller than those for the Phase 1 NAP. The development of a facility-specific database, creation of the information needed to forecast sector-specific emissions, the consultation process, as well as the efforts developed by stakeholders to participate and influence the process all contributed to the considerable administrative costs of the UK Phase 1 NAP. Due to the experience gained both by UK government officials and by stakeholders, administrative costs of subsequent NAPs are likely to be substantially lower. However, the multiple-period approach may increase the administrative burden of the scheme relative to a case in which the allocations are decided only once, since some elements will undoubtedly be revisited and since greater understanding by stakeholders could well mean that some issues become more contentious. Overall, however, the considerable effort to develop the Phase 1 NAP and the framework and data underlying it provide a very solid foundation for future periods. 

The main scientific prospect for the SAU systems is the publication of atlases, the first of which contains forecasted inter-nuclear separations for diatomic molecules (Hefferlin, Davis and Ileto 2003) and the second of which presents vibration frequencies (Davis and Hefferlin, in preparation). The prospect for public acceptance of this very general periodic system could improve if the public develops a taste for multiple dimensions One way in which this might occur is by exposure to written (Abbott 1952 Burger 1983) or filmed expositions (Banchoff and Strauss Productions 1979),... 

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