Forced outage rate

The probability of finding the generator in the forced outage at distant time in the future represents the basic parameter used in static capacity evaluation for modelling of generating unit reliability. This probability is defined as unit Unavailability (U) and in power system applications it is known as the unit Forced Outage Rate (FOR), defined as ... 

In case of two state units, cumulative probability of a particular capacity outage state of X (MW), after a unit of capacity C (MW) and forced outage rate U is added, is given by ... 

The NERC GADS ten-year review report for 1971-1980 on equipment availability presents statistical data sets on the performance of major types of electrical power generating units. Cumulative and unit.-year averages are calculated on such quantities as service hours, available hours, scheduled outage rate, mean time between full forced outages, shutdown because of economic reasons, and probability of outage. The number of start demands and successful starts are included. 

Loss of load probabiUty consists of two segments in which the generating unit unavailability is characterized by random outage rate (forced)... 

System size is based on 8 months of production bum time. This is 5840 operating hours. Dividing the tonnage (1.5 x 40,000 yards) by this value results in a feed rate of 10 tons per hour (tph). Applying a 65% capacity utilization (to account for forced and plaimed outages) for this project duration results in a capacity of 16 tph. 

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