Ex-ante assessment

Kuhnala, R. 2010. Ex-ante assessment of the safety effects of inteUigent transport systems. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42, 1359-1369. 

Ex-ante Assessment of a Speed Limit Reducing Operation - A Data-driven Approach... 

Ex-ante assessment results of the speed decrease in the ALLEGRO motorway network... 

A speed limit decrease generally induces a decrease in the road injury and fatality accident count. This chapter presents a method for the ex-ante assessment of such a decrease and its application on a French motorway network. Some results on the calibration and the use of relationships linking traffic density or speed to accident counts are given. The envisaged decrease in the speed limit by 20 km/h should lead to a 1.9% decrease in the accident count with the current compliance and to a 3% decrease with full compliance. These figures are a trade-off between a null trend for certain accidents (due to driver or vehicle failure), a decrease in accidents linked to speed and an increase in accidents linked to a high density. However, this prediction is very sensitive to the traffic and safety models, to their calibration and to the conditions of their use. 

In particular, the satisficing model appears very attractive when we turn to the problem of explaining technical change. Since the ex ante possibility and profltat ity of innovations are so hard to assess, it makes sense to argue that innovating firms are spurred by adversity rather than lured by profits. Let me draw attention to a passage in which Marx seems to propose a similar view ... 

Nas the assessment done before or after the program was implemented Ex post Ex ante Describes how program benefits are distributed across population groups Estimates how program benefits will be distributed if certain program parameters change... 

The first objective of the VRUITS project is to assess societal impacts of selected ITS applications, and to provide recormnendations for policy and industry regarding ITS in order to improve the safety and mobility of VRUs. Both ex-ante and ex-post assessments of the applications are performed in order to come to a consolidated set of recommendations. 

The process of identifying, assessing, prioritizing and evalirating somces and drivers will yield an assessment of the ex-ante profile in relation to risk and performance consequences for the organization at a particirlar point in time. The organization may assess dimensions of this profile which it considers unacceptable or undesirable and consequently seek to consider actions to address these. 

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