Estimating the number of development wells

The type and number of wells required for development will influence the surface facilities design and have a significant impact on the cost of development. Typically the drilling expenditure for a project is between 20 and 40% of the total capex. A reasonable estimate of the number of wells required is therefore important. 

When preparing feasibility studies, it is often sufficient to estimate the number of wells by considering 

For a particular type of development, the production profile can be estimated using the 

There will be some uncertainty as to the well initials, since the exploration and appraisal wells may not have been completed optimally, and their locations may not be representative of the whole of the field. A range of well initials should therefore be used to generate a range of number of wells required. The individual well performance will depend upon the fluid flow near the wellbore, the type of well (vertical, deviated or horizontal), the completion type and any artificial lift techniques used. These factors will be considered in this section. 

The number of injectors required may be estimated in a similar manner, but it is unlikely that the exploration and appraisal activities will have included injectivity tests, of say water injection into the water column of the reservoir. In this case, an estimate must be made of the injection potential, based on an assessment of reservoir quality in the water column, which may be reduced by the effects of compaction and diagenesis. Development plans based on water injection or natural aquifer drive often suffer from lack of data from the water bearing part of the reservoir, since appraisal activity to establish the reservoir properties in the water column is frequently overlooked. In the absence of any data, a range of assumptions of injectivity should be generated, to yield a range of number of wells required. If this range introduces large uncertainties into the development plan, then appraisal effort to reduce this uncertainty may be justified. 

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