Energy consumption, forecast

Forecast Year 2010 Start Year 1995 Baseline Energy Consumption for year 2010 = lOSBTWh... 

Speculation on the credibility of this forecast of economic growth is ended here, and the reader is asked to accept it as being within the bounds of possibility. In translating it into energy consumption, the tactic of assuming that historical relationships will prevail is again adopted, and speculation as to whether this is reasonable is entertained. 

Figure 5 shows the result. If the historical relationship between economic growth and energy consumption continues and if the economic forecast is approximately correct, then by the year 2000 Canada will be consuming over 20 quadrillion Btu s compared with slightly over 5 quadrillion in 1970. This is less than one-third of United States consumption today. On a per capita basis, it would mean that for each of the 35 million Canadians assumed at that time, about 585 million Btu s would be consumed annually compared with about 250 million today. (Again the competent economists quoted earlier suggest that per capita consumption in the United States will reach 450 million Btu s as early as 1985.)... 

Following the energy demand forecasts [26], the gas consumption in Armenia will increase from about 2.5 bcm to 5.5 bcm in 2010 and 2020 respectively. The supply is planned to be secured from Russia using the existing North-South Caucasus Gas main transmission system via Georgia, and also from such new supply sources as Iran or others. 

What all scenarios and models forecast is that a nuclear war would have a significant effect on the atmosphere and climate of Earth, and consequently, would drastically and negatively affect many aspects of life such as food production and energy consumption. 

The U. S. Bureau of Mines has forecast that the gross energy consumption will double by the year 2000 to approximately 193.4 quadrillion BTU s. Of this, approximately 41.2% will be consumed by industrial users. In many cases, these same industrial users are generating waste materials containing a significant amount of recoverable energy. 

Fig. 2 U.S. energy consumption by fuel sources past, current, and future forecast. Unit used is in quadrillion BTUs. (U.S. Department of Energy,1999.) (View this art in color at www.dekker.com.)...

Concluding it can be forecasted a reasonable potential for the combination of solar thermal energy and process intensification in various industry sectors. New research developments and realized applications will lead hopefully to follow-ups and to a significant reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. 

Scenarios of future energy consumption and energy mixes are needed, but we should keep in mind that they are probably uncertain, such as shown in Table 5.1.14 for global energy demand and in Table 5.1.15 for energy consumption in the USA, comparing forecasts from the 1970s for 2000 with the actual values. 

Table 5.1.14 Forecast in 1977 of global primary energy consumption in 2000.

Table 5.1.18 Today s and future global primary energy consumption [data from lEA, 43,42 forecast from Schollnberger (2006), see also Jess (2010)].

After the average crude oil price increased from 3.18 per barrel in 1970 to 21.59 in 1980, many analysts forecast skyrocketing energy prices for the remainder of the centuiy. The middle price path of the U.S. Energy Information Administration in 1979 projected a nominal price of 117.50 per barrel in 1995 Such forecasts seemed to be soundly based not only in recent experience but also in the economic theoiy of exhaustible resources. As a consequence, U.S. industries invested heavily in energy conseiwa-tion measures, with the result that industrial consumption of energy decreased from 31.5 quads in 1973 to 27.2 in 1985. Some of this investment was probably not warranted on economic efficiency gi ounds because prices ceased to rise after 1981, and even plummeted to 10 per barrel in 1986. 

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