Ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting The use of models to predict the effects of perturbation in the form of... 

Xenopoulos MA, Lodge DM (2006) Going with the flow using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity. Ecology 87 1907-1914... 

Presser TS, Luoma SN (2006) Forecasting selenium discharges to the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary ecological effects of a proposed San Luis drain extension. United States Geological Survey Professional Paper 1646, Menlo Park, California. 

Mahmudov H.M. The forecast of methane emission in oil-gas sector of Azerbaijan. Proceedings of the Eighth Baku International Congress Energy, Ecology, Economy , June 2005 Baku pp. 548-549. 

Patterns should be in common. Although exact prediction may be problematic and the idea of recovery an illusion, certain patterns should be detectable. The increase in tolerance, often observed as pollution-induced community tolerance, is one such example. Several potential outcomes may be possible, but not every outcome. Perhaps, as a better understanding of the assembly of ecosystems develops, we can even predict the probabilities of the outcomes. Prediction of ecological impacts will resemble more the weather forecast than the Newtonian dynamics. 

The investigation of air flows, turbulence, heat exchange, and pollutant transport within residential urban areas have become important in recent years because of the ecological reasons and the elaboration of measures for a better urban comfort and countermeasures to possible terrorist s attacks. There are several scientific programs running by the USA and European Union towards a better understanding of relevant physical mechanisms and forecasts for the urban climate of some test cities, see Chapters 2 and 9. 

Its substance is in setting problem forecast objectives, i.e., questions, which are necessary to answer through modeling. As a rule, they have an ecological or research nature. In the former case the problem to be solved is associated with underground water or geological environment quality protection as a whole. In the latter case, with the study of hydrogeochemical environment, its processes and their role in formation economic mineral deposits. 

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