Chemical process quantitative risk analysis steps

FIGURE 1.1. Chemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) flowchart. The dashed iine indicates the steps identified as consequence analysis. 

The deviation scenarios found in the previous step of the risk analysis must be assessed in terms of risk, which consists of assigning a level of severity and probability of occurrence to each scenario. This assessment is qualitative or semi-quantitative, but rarely quantitative, since a quantitative assessment requires a statistical database on failure frequency, which is difficult to obtain for the fine chemicals industry with such a huge diversity of processes. The severity is clearly linked to the consequences of the scenario or to the extent of possible damage. It may be assessed using different points of view, such as the impact on humans, the environment, property, the business continuity, or the company s reputation. Table 1.4 gives an example of such a set of criteria. In order to allow for a correct assessment, it is essential to describe the scenarios with all their consequences. This is often a demanding task for the team, which must interpret the available data in order to work out the consequences of a scenario, together with its chain of events. 

The four steps of the risk-assessment process are hazard identification, analysis of exposure, analysis of effect, and risk characterization. In the hazard identification step, the risk assessor identifies chemicals of concern, environmental pathways of exposure, and populations and subpopulations at risk. The exposure analysis develops exposure scenarios and estimates the chronic daily intake of each chemical of concern. In the analysis of effect, the risk assessor combines the chronic daily intake calculated in the exposure analysis with toxicity data from animal studies (and/or human epidemiological studies, if available) to estimate the risk of toxic effects in exposed populations, whereby risks to public health are divided into two broad categories noncancer health effects and cancer. The final step of the risk-assessment process, risk characterization, is a narrative that marshals all the evidence of risk to public health, including quantitative risk assessments and qualitative evidence of risk. The risk assessor weighs all the evidence and uses professional judgment to draw conclusions about risks. 

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