Analytical Methods for Predicting and Reducing Human Error

Analytical Methods for Predicting and Reducing Human Error 

The various analytical methods for predicting and reducing human error can be assigned to four groups or sections. In order to make a start on any form of analysis or prediction of human error, it is obviously necessary to gather information. The first section therefore describes a number of techniques that can be applied to acquire data about what the worker does, or what happened in an accident. 

The third category of methods addressed in this chapter are error analysis and reduction methodologies. Error analysis techniques can either be applied in a proactive or retrospective mode. In the proactive mode they are used to predict possible errors when tasks are being analyzed during chemical process quantitative risk assessment and design evaluations. When applied retrospectively, they are used to identify the underlying causes of errors giving rise to accidents. Very often the distinction between task analysis and error analysis is blurred, since the process of error analysis always has to proceed from a comprehensive description of a task, usually derived from a task analysis. 

The last category of techniques are various forms of checklists of factors that can influence human reliability. These are used mainly in a proactive auditing mode. They have the advantage that they are quick and easy to apply. However, considerable training may be necessary to interpret the results and to generate appropriate remedial strategies in the event that problems are identified. 

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Chapter 4, Analytical Methods for Predicting and Reducing Human Error, contains a discussion and critique of the various methods that are available for analyzing a process for its potential for human error. 

The intention of this chapter has been to provide an overview of analytical methods for predicting and reducing human error in CPI tasks. The data collection methods and ergonomics checklists are useful in generating operational data about the characteristics of the task, the skills and experience required, and the interaction between the worker and the task. Task analysis methods organize these data into a coherent description or representation of the objectives and work methods required to carry out the task. This task description is subsequently utilized in human error analysis methods to examine the possible errors that can occur during a task. 

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