A Decentralized Approach to Hydrogen Production for the United States

A Decentralized Approach to Hydrogen Production for the United States 

The first path forward involves the decentralized production of hydrogen from natural gas or electrolysis at fueling stations in the United 

States. This approach may not achieve all the stated objectives for transitioning to a hydrogen economy. Specifically, much of the hydrogen production will rely on the heavy use of fossil fuels, whether produced from natural gas reformation or electrolysis using largely grid-supplied electric power. A distributed hydrogen system wiU, however, reduce the transport sector s reliance on imported sources of petroleum. 

The two options for hydrogen production at the station level are reformation of natural gas or electrolysis. Doubters of the decentralized approach will note the concern about natural gas availability and electricity generation capacity. Confronting those doubts requires understanding the potential increase in demand for natural gas that would be associated with the move to a hydrogen future. 

Both scenarios include all types of passenger vehicles, including mini-vans and light duty trucks. A key difference between the two scenarios is the assumed time required to go from 10 to 90% of the likely market share at saturation. The moderate growth scenario assumes it takes 20 years for market share to go from 10 to 90% the aggressive growth scenario assumes this happens in 10 years. Table 10.1 summarizes the results from the two scenarios. 

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