Wind speed probability distribution

For compounds with Kii/Vl larger than about 10 2 the overall air-water transfer velocity is approximately equal to the water-phase exchange velocity viw The latter is related to wind speed uw by a nonlinear relation (Table 20.2, Eq. 20-16). The annual mean of viw calculated from Eq. 20-16 with the annual mean wind speed ul0 would underestimate the real mean air-water exchange velocity. Thus, we need information not only on the average wind speed, but also on the wind-speed probability distribution. 

The Weibull distribution adequately represents (Li et al., 2014, Liu, 2012) the wind speed probability distribution for most sampling times. Wind speed V is a variable generated at random (for a given time interval of one hour) with a Weibull distribution given by the following Probability Density Function (PDF) ... 

F(u10) is the probability of a measured wind speed exceeding a given value ul0, u0 is a scaling factor, and the exponent , describes the form of the distribution curve. 

In Voortman, two different possibilities of modeling the distribution of water levels are examined (a) by direct statistic analysis of the observed water levels and (b) by combining the probability distribution of wind speed with a relevant physical model. Realizing that physical models are often imperfect, in option (b) an estimate of the model uncertainty is necessary. 

We now discuss briefly the question of load calibration for the structural systems of tall buildings or other flexible structures sensitive to wind directionality effects. The procedure of [33] may be used for calibration purposes in this context as well. Here also the extent to which the probability distribution of the directional extreme wind speeds is realistic is likely to affect the calibration in possibly significant ways. Additional difficulties are related to the inelastic behavior of the structure near its ultimate capacity. Some of these difficulties are being solved, especially in the context of applications to... 

Obtained results show that increase uncertainty of the peak load size results in larger mean LOLP. The mean LOLP depends on the parameters of the distribution used for characterization of the wind speed. Increase of the share of the wind generation results in increased LOLP. The change of the wind generation share modifies the probability density function of the LOLP. 

Morgan Eugene C., Lackner Matthew, Vogel Richard M., Laurie Baise G., (2011), Probability distributions for offshore wind speeds. Energy Conversion and Management Journal, No 52, pp 15-26. 

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