Unlearned Lessons

Looking back at the relevant lessons from the ozone history discussed earlier, how do the climate negotiations compare  

On the role of science, the IPCC has mobilized the scientific community and is doing good work. There is general consensus that the greenhouse theory is robust if concentrations continue to accumulate indefinitely, potentially calamitous climate change will occur at some future time. But no one can yet predict when this 

In contrast to climate, the consequences of ozone layer depletion were of startling clarity they would be global and fatal, and the anticipated time-span was a matter of a few decades. Because of this, governments decided to take decisive measures even in the absence of proof that CFCs were yet damaging the ozone layer. 

Proponents of strong and early carbon dioxide emissions reductions act as if the potential impacts of climate change are comparable. But to obtain international agreement on measures that could entail substantial near-term costs, the dangers avoided must be more compelling than what a leading scientist advocate recently conceded were merely not implausible (Schellnhuber, 1999). 

Interestingly, a recent survey indicated that nearly four times as many German scientists as Americans would make extreme interpretations in order to influence public opinion on climate change in all, 60% of German scientists felt this was appropriate, while two-thirds of the Americans expressed disapproval of the practice (von Storch and Bray 1999). The negotiations demonstrate, however, that attempts to compensate for lacunae in evidence by exaggerated claims often result in damaged credibility. 

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Mai My dearest Mai, come all the way from Hartwell Rounder than ever for the cloaks and scarves she had wrapped herself in, and rosy-cheeked from the frost, she stumped into the room, and when I had raised her from the small curtsy that was all her rheumatics allowed, we embraced. In her arms, though my sorrows and fears were beyond her power to amend, for one strange moment it was as if I had no more to trouble me than a cut knee and an unlearned lesson, and Mai the craft to mend them both. But even Mai had not such craft. 

Why did the US Navy experience an event that killed forty-seven sailors aboard a battleship Why did NASA learn, and then presumably unlearn, lessons after the Shuttle Challenger tragedy in 1986, only to experience the loss of the Shuttle Columbia and its crew seventeen years later Why, year after year, does any cursory search of the news result in several examples of safety concerns that are ignored or overlooked, and result in catastrophic, multi-million dollar losses, lawsuits, and lives lost ... 

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