Tortuous Targets in Kyoto

Even industrialized countries differ widely among themselves in geography, population, natural resource base, climatic conditions, industrial structure, and dependence on energy. Since these critical parameters are either intrinsic or immutable in the short run. 

The 11-15 year Kyoto targets are clearly inadequate to make any dent in future atmospheric concentrations, which is the crucial measure of danger to climate. Even if the protocol were fully implemented, it would only serve to delay by less than a decade the date in the next century at which global carbon dioxide concentrations, under current emissions trends projected by IPCC, would cross the 550 parts per million (ppm) mark that represents a doubling of preindustrial concentrations 

TABLE 1 Totiil CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion (Million Tons of 

Source IL.A. (1999). International Energy Agency. Ctirbon Dioxide Eitn ioii hroni Eos si Fuel Cowhuslion, Hi ddi dUs. 

In contrast, 1995 per capita emissions in the European Union were only slightly above its Kyoto target (Meyerson, 1998). The population inequity factor becomes even more significant in future years. According to the latest United Nations projections (medium, or most likely variant), the U.S. population by 2050 will be 37% higher than in 1990, while the populations of Japan and Germany will decrease by 15% and 8%, respectively (United Nations Population Division, 1999). 

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