Statistical forecast accuracy improvement

According to the coal mine accident statistics in recent 10 years in our country, this paper uses the combined forecasting method to forecast the future of the coal mine accidents in China. Compared with single forecasting method, the weight distribution method of the combination forecast greatly improve the forecast accuracy of the coal mine accidents, and it has certain applicability for guiding the safety work of coal mine accidents in China. 

FVA uses standard forecast performance measurements (metrics) to identify value-added or non-value-added activities in the process that contribute to the accuracy or inaccuracy of the demand forecast. The result is a mechanism that reduces non-value-added touch points, thus improving the overall accuracy. Companies that have successfully implemented FVA have experienced significant improvement in overall forecast accuracy and reduced cycle times. If an activity does not improve the accuracy of the statistical baseline forecast, it should be eliminated, or minimized (simplified), to reduce cycle time and resources. 

Statistical forecast methods (e.g.. Exponential Smoothing, Box-Jenkins, Holt and Holt-Winters) are used to plan business volume for short term period (1 week to 4 months). Combined forecast methods are also used to improve forecast accuracy. 

The accuracy of short term statistical forecasts can be easily measured but since the goal of the S OP system is to reduce the dependency on the forecast we should also measure the lead-time gap at the individual item level. The aim should be to progressively reduce this gap by a concerted focus on time compression and improved visibility. 

The altitude effect (Sec. 3) and the radiation amplification factor (Sec. 4) were derived from UV-ERY measurements made simultaneously at two locations in the Czech Republic. The value of RAF obtained from the present data agrees with previous studies of other authors. The value of the amplitude effect agrees with the value used by National Weather Service and EPA [10] but is lower than the values obtained by other authors [2, 9]. The statistical model relating UV-ERY irradiance with total ozone and solar zenith angle was developed (Sec. 5 Fig. 2). Although the information on the total ozone does not satisfactorily improves accuracy of the UV-ERY forecast (further variables should be incorporated into the model to improve its accuracy), the model may be used to estimate annual and daily cycles of sun-visible UV-ERY irradiance for various total ozone levels. The results obtained show variability of the model UV-ERY irradiance related to variability of total column ozone. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the UV-ERY irradiance may exceed the annual/daily normal-ozone maxima during non-negligible portion of the year/day (about 214 months/hours) if the total ozone... 

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