Predictions for the twenty-first century

Extrapolation of figures for the past 40 years over the next 100 produces ridiculous conclusions with population increasing sixfold to 36 billion, consumption per person of oils and fats increasing to a world average of 110 kilos per annum, and world production of 4 billion tonnes in 2100 More reasonably, it is now widely accepted that population will level out half-way through the century at around 10 billion, and Fry has made other assumptions about growth 

In Table 1.23, the areas which must be cultivated with oil-bearing plants to meet these requirements are reported on the basis of an annual increase in yield of 1.50%. On this basis, the present yield of 0.59 tonnes/hectare will increase to 2.03 tonnes/hectare or 4.41 times, and the required area of cultivation increase from 156 to 352 million hectares (2.26 times) by the end of the century. Corresponding figures are also given for lower (1.25%) and higher (1.75%) average annual increases. 

De Greyt, W. and Kellens, K. (2000) Refining practice, in Edible Oil Processing (eds W. Hamm and R J. Hamilton), Sheffield Academic Press, Sheffield, pp. 79-128. 

(2001) The world s oil and fat needs in the 21st century lessons from the 20th century, Lecture presented the Oils and Fats Group of the Society of Chemical Industry at Hull, England. 

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The petroleum industry is now the principal suppHer of ben2ene, toluene, the xylenes, and naphthalene (see BTX processing Feedstocks). Petroleum displaced coal tar as the primary source for these aromatic compounds after World War II because it was relatively cheap and abundantly available. However, the re-emergence of king coal is predicted for the twenty-first century, when oil suppHes are expected to dwindle and the cost of producing chemicals from coal (including new processes based on synthesis gas) will gradually become more competitive (3). 

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