Polymers, kinetic modeling statistical method

This closure property is also inherent to a set of differential equations for arbitrary sequences Uk in macromolecules of linear copolymers as well as for analogous fragments in branched polymers. Hence, in principle, the kinetic method enables the determination of statistical characteristics of the chemical structure of noncyclic polymers, provided the Flory principle holds for all the chemical reactions involved in their synthesis. It is essential here that the Flory principle is meant not in its original version but in the extended one [2]. Hence under mathematical modeling the employment of the kinetic models of macro-molecular reactions where the violation of ideality is connected only with the short-range effects will not create new fundamental problems as compared with ideal models. 

In the past, the equivalence between the size distribution generated by the Smoluchowski equation and simple statistical methods [9, 12, 40-42] was a source of some confusion. The Spouge proof and the numerical results obtained for the kinetics models with more complex aggregation physics, e.g., with a presence of substitution effects [43,44], revealed the non-equivalence of kinetics and statistical models of polymerization processes. More elaborated statistical models, however, with the complete analysis made repeatedly at small time intervals have been shown to produce polymer size distributions equivalent to those generated kinetically [45]. Recently, Faliagas [46] has demonstrated that the kinetics and statistical models which are both the mean-field models can be considered as special cases of a general stochastic Markov process. 

When the statistical moments of the distribution of macromolecules in size and composition (SC distribution) are supposed to be found rather than the distribution itself, the problem is substantially simplified. The fact is that for the processes of synthesis of polymers describable by the ideal kinetic model, the set of the statistical moments is always closed. The same closure property is peculiar to a set of differential equations for the probability of arbitrary sequences t//j in linear copolymers and analogous fragments in branched polymers. Therefore, the kinetic method permits finding any statistical characteristics of loopless polymers, provided the Flory principle works for all chemical reactions of their synthesis. This assertion rests on the fact that linear and branched polymers being formed under the applicability of the ideal kinetic model are Markovian and Gordonian polymers, respectively. 

Numerous reports are available [19,229-248] on the development and analysis of the different procedures of estimating the reactivity ratio from the experimental data obtained over a wide range of conversions. These procedures employ different modifications of the integrated form of the copolymerization equation. For example, intersection [19,229,231,235], (KT) [236,240], (YBR) [235], and other [242] linear least-squares procedures have been developed for the treatment of initial polymer composition data. Naturally, the application of the non-linear procedures allows one to obtain more accurate estimates of the reactivity ratios. However, majority of the calculation procedures suffers from the fact that the measurement errors of the independent variable (the monomer feed composition) are not considered. This simplification can lead in certain cases to significant errors in the estimated kinetic parameters [239]. Special methods [238, 239, 241, 247] were developed to avoid these difficulties. One of them called error-in-variables method (EVM) [239, 241, 247] seems to be the best. EVM implies a statistical approach to the general problem of estimating parameters in mathematical models when the errors in all measured variables are taken into account. Though this method requires more information than do ordinary non-linear least-squares procedures, it provides more reliable estimates of rt and r2 as well as their confidence limits. 

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