Hubbert’s Peak

Deffeyes, K. S. (2001). Hubbert s Peak The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press. 

Deffeyes KS (1981) Beyond oil the view from Hubbert s peak. Farrar Straus and Giroux, New York... 

These analyses were based on methods developed by Shell Oil s M. King Hubbert in 1956. Mr. Hubbert predicted that the production of oil in the lower 48 states would peak between 1965 and 1972 and decline thereafter. At the time, the critics thought he was mad however, production within the 48 states peaked on schedule in 1970 and has declined ever since. A new book, Hubbert s Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes (ISBN 0691090866) on this subject is appearing this fall. Pre-release reviews indicate that when Hubbert s methods are applied to the current world oil supply the peak in world production will occur some time between 2004 and 2008. ... 

An alternative measure of remaining resources relies on Hubbert s Peak analysis. M. King Hubbert, an employee at the United States Geologic Survey, postulated that resource production essentially follows a classic bell-shaped curve and that production peaks once half the resource has been depleted. In 1956, Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Most people in the industry initially rejected his analysis. However, Hubbert was right - US oil production peaked exactly as predicted, reaching 9.6 mbd in 1971. Despite increased production from Alaska, US production had fallen to 5.4 mbd by 2004 (EIA 2006). 

Two methods commonly are used to assess the adequacy of existing reserves the reserve-to-production ratio and the calculation of the timing of peak production from existing fields, or Hubbert s Peak methodology. The simplest is the R P method. R P ratios for oil reserves are summarized in Table 2.3. At first glance, they suggest oil reserves will last approximately 40 years at current production rates. Of course, as world demand soars, production also will increase, lowering the R P ratio. 

What s interesting, however, is that the two methods for evaluating remaining supplies, R P and Hubbert s Peak, are not contradictory. They simply pose two analytical viewpoints. Campbell and Laherrfere s (1998) analysis using Hubbert s curve shows global production decreasing essentially to zero in approximately 40 years, the same as the R P used to predict when the supply of oil will run out. The discrepancy in this analysis, however, is that the R P assumes constant levels of production while the bell curve assumes decreasing levels of production after the peak. 

In his book, Hubbert s Peak The Impending World Oil Shortage, Deffeyes (2001) argues that the production of anthracite coal in Pennsylvania followed the Hubbert curve. Coal production in Pennsylvania commenced in 1830 and grew exponentially until production peaked in 1920 when half of the recoverable reserves had been extracted. Production then declined, with the exception of a spike in production during World War II. By 1980 production was nearing zero. 

Ryan, J. (2003) Hubbert s Peak Dejd vu All Over Again, 2nd quarter, lAEE Newsletter, Cleveland, pp. 9-12. 

The limited supplies, uneven distribution, and rising costs of petroleum and natural gas, create a need to change to more sustainable energy sources. With as much dependence that the United States currently has for petroleum and with the peaking limits of oil production (Hubbert s peak), various countries are already feeling (Hubbert s peak) and societies will begin to feel the dechne in the... 

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