Global warming mean temperatures

Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean. Seasonally, the largest warming is likely to be in northern Europe in winter and in the Mediterranean area in summer. 

Consequently, the net OLR has increased by 0.006 W m-2 since 1880. This means that about one-third of today s thermal pollution (0.02 W m-2) is emitted from Earth. In the long term our use of non-renewable energy will cause a global temperature increase up to a point where the net OLR balances the net heat generation. Meanwhile, nature has some means of delaying global warming. 

The calculated surface temperature of the Earth can be compared with a mean surface temperature of 288 K. The difference in these temperatures is attributed to global warming mechanisms in the atmosphere. Similar calculations can be performed for any object at any distance from a star of known temperature. The calculations for the other objects in the solar system are presented for the other planets in Table 7.2. 

The global mean SAT in 2003 exceeded the average for 1961-1990 by 0.46°C. According to data from satellite thermal sensing, the global mean temperature of the middle troposphere in 2003 was one-third that of average warming for 1979-1998. 

One of the first comprehensive estimates of global mean, near-surface temperature over the earth s lands and oceans was reported in 1986 (Jones et al, 1986). The data showed a long-timescale warming trend. The three warmest years were 1980, 1981, and 1983, and five of the nine warmest years in the entire 124-year record up to 1984 were found to have occurred after 1978. It was apparent from this study that over this period, annual mean temperature increased by about 0.6 to 0.7°C, and that about 40 to 50% of this increase occurred since about 1975. According to many analysts, the warmest year on record up to 1995 is 1995, and recent years have been the warmest since 1860 despite the cooling effect of the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991... 

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