Future Outlook for Fertilizer Demand

The demand projections developed by the Working Group are presented in Table 4.2. Global fertilize demand is projected to increase at 2% per annum - from 

Nutrient (Actual) 1999/2000 - -(million nutrient tonnes)- 2004/05 Absolute Charge (million nutrient tonnes) Annual Change (%) 

Source FAO [2] for actual consumption and World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/lndustry Fertilizer Working Group Meeting, August 1995 for projections. 

The demand for all three nutrients is expected to increase at 1.9% to 2.1%/year. A relatively higher growth for potash is a result of the impact of recovery in the reforming regions on potash use. Nitrogen demand is projected to increase from 73.6 million tonnes in 1994/ 95 to 88.9 miflion tonnes in 2004/05. Phosphate and potash demand is projected to increase from 29.7 and 20.0 million tonnes in 1994/95 to 36.4 and 24.6 million tonnes in 2004/05, respectively. Of the projected increase of 26.6 million nutrient tonnes in global fertilizer use, over half of the increase will be contributed by an increase in N demand, and about one-fourth by an increase in phosphate demand. Increased demand for potash will account for less than one-fifth of the projected increase. 

At the regional level, Asia will continue to dominate the global fertilizer scene. Nearly half of the projected increase in fertilizer use will occur in Asia. Both East Asia and South Asia will increase their fertilizer use by 5-6 million nutrient tonnes each. In West Asia, fertilizer use is expected to increase by over 1 million tonnes. In Latin America, both Central and South America, are 

---