Fossil fuel reserves model

In a sense, the chemistry of O2 itself represents something of a nonproblem the photosynthetic cycle keeps in balance the production and removal (through respiration) of molecular oxygen. Net removal of O2 accompanies the combustion of fossil fuel but even were the Earth s entire reserve of carbon burned to yield CO2, the concomitant decrease in partial pressure of O2 would be small and probably of little environmental consequence when compared to the enormous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our research efforts are primarily concerned with the establishment of a reliable base of kinetic and photochemical data that may be applied to the development of advanced models of atmospheric chemistry. Field measurements alone provide only part of the answer in that one cannot measure everything simultaneously and there are certain minor constituents (such as HO2) which even now cannot be adequately monitored at ambient concentrations. All models are in a sense underdefined in that were one to vary freely the available parameters, perfectly good fits to the limited field data would be possible. The goal of laboratory studies is to constrain the number of free parameters that are available to a large extent I think that we have been successful. 

For the purpose of developing the long-term projections in this paper, all fossil fuel resource data used will be that available in 1993 and projections shown in the figures start at 1990. Published data from 1990 to 2001 for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels will be used to test the model. The cumulative production of world fossil fuel (oil, gas and coal) and a projection into the future are shown in Fig. 1. The projection was made using the HR Model (Hubbert, 1981) and is based on known, proved reserves only. The total area under the curve in Fig. 1 is47,330 quads (Barabba, 1989 Taylor, 1989 Kilgore, 1993 West, 1993). The curve in Fig. 1 will be used to develop the low estimate of fossil fuel production. 

FIGURE 2.1 Coal reserves and distribution in the United States. (From Miller, C.L., in 2007 EIA Energy Outlook Modeling and Data Conference, March 28,2007, Office of Sequestration, Hydrogen, and Clean Coal Fuels, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC.)... 

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