Forecasting integration with operations

An attempt to forecast the further shrinkage of integrated circuits has been made by Gleason (2000). He starts out with some up-to-date statistics during the past 25 years, the number of transistors per unit area of silicon has increased by a factor of 250, and the density of circuits is now such that 20,000 cells (each with a transistor and capacitor) would fit within the cross-section of a human hair. This kind of relentless shrinkage of circuits, following an exponential time law, is known as Moore s law (Moore was one of the early captains of this industry). The question is whether the operation of Moore s Law will continue for some years yet Gleason says that attempts to forecast an end to the validity of Moore s Law have failed dismally it has continued to hold well beyond expectations . The problems at... 

The current version of Enviro-HIRLAM has not previously been evaluated against ETEX-1 measurements. The ETX domain (Eig. 5.1) was used with at time-step fixed at 10 min, and initial and boundary conditions were post-processed from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Eorecasts operational model, IFS (Integrated Forecast System). No surface or upper air data assimilation was employed and the model was integrated 80 h into the future. The start time was on 23 October 1994 at 12 00 UTC, 4 h before the start of the release. Output was interpolated to measurement stations in order to compare to the observations and produce statistical measures. 

At operational centers, as marty as 50 model integrations are carried ont usually up to a forecast period of 15 days, starling from different initial states that include a variety of rapidly growing error modes. Now, having as many as 50 forecasts in comparison with a single deterministic... 

A realistic simulation of real data was achieved using the model with a 56-km horizontal resolntion and 32 layers in the vertical. Numerical simulation for the forward trajectories was initialized at 0000 UTC April 18, and at 2100 UTC April 19, for the backward trajectory using ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) analysis as the initial conditions. Initial fields of geopotential height, wind components and specific humidity, at ten standard pressure levels, were obtained by bihnear interpolation from the ECMWF operational initialized analyses. Time-dependent lateral boundary values were taken from the ECMWF analyses, linearly interpolated between the analyzed fields available at 6 h intervals. They were used at the outermost boundary points only. The row next to the outer boundary is a blend (four-point space interpolation) of the outer row and the third row inside, which is the outermost integration row of the model. 

The updated failure probability function (Figs. 4 or 5) is significantly increasing when operation time is over 30 years. The renovation of pipeline is recommended. The results of analyzed case show (Figs. 4 and 5) that failures in piping of considered part of district heating main network occur more frequently than it was forecasted with failure probability obtained in deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis. More frequent failures... 

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