Exercises Credibility

The kinetic study assists in the development of a credible reaction mechanism which describes all aspects of the reaction - not just the kinetics [ 1 ]. The complete exercise involves empirical and theoretical considerations which run in parallel they are complementary and feedback between them is essential [2]. Aspects (i) and (ii) above were covered in the previous chapter, and we now focus first on the derivation of the rate law (rate equation) from a mechanistic proposal (the mechanistic rate law) for comparison with the experimental finding. In simple cases, the derivation is usually straightforward but can be mathematically challenging for complex reaction mechanisms. Once derived, the mechanistic rate law is compared with the experimental, and the quality of the agreement is one test of the applicability of the mechanism. Different mechanisms may lead to the same rate law (they are kinetically equivalent), and, whilst agreement between mechanistic and experimental rate laws is required, this alone is not a sufficient proof of the validity of the mechanism [3-7]. We conclude the chapter by working through several case histories. 

Program development for all phases involves five tasks. During the first task, EP Coordinators should staff, train, and exercise a crisis communications team. This team forms a critical link between technical experts and the population at risk hence, its members should have skills in communicating with both groups. In addition, the crisis communications team should be represented by a spokesperson who is technically competent to explain emergency conditions clearly and will be perceived as credible because of relevant credentials (e.g., job title and educational degrees), acceptance by other sources of known credibility, or a demonstrated history of job performance that has enhanced credibil-ity [3.36] helpful if this spokesperson... 

The authors of this initial printed version of the Encyclopedia are recognized experts in their fields, lending credibility and prestige to the Encyclopedia. All the authors were invited based on their records of accomplishment in the chosen topical areas. All entries were individually reviewed by peers as well as the Editor. As part of the review and revision processes, every effort was exercised to maintain the consistency, accuracy, readability, and up-to-date nature of the information presented. 

A scenario that has a relatively high probability of occurring for the situation under examination. As part of emergency response planning, credible scenario exercises or pre-planning is undertaken. In order to avoid undue and unrealistic postulation of events that may occur, a collection of credible scenarios is identified and assembled. These can be based on past loss histories or on risk assessments that have been undertaken for the specific aspect being reviewed. See also Pre-incident Planning Scenario Tabletop Drill. 

Although relevant exercises have been conducted, and Cold War nuclear weapons programs provide validated analytic platforms, there have been no actual post-det terrorist incidents involving an IND or RDD to date. Consequently, no technical investigations in the contemporary embodiment of nuclear forensic analysis exist for an actual post-det situation, and all discussed case studies necessarily focus on interdicted, pre-det materials. (However, a nuclear accident that is perhaps exemplary of maximum-credible consequences of successful terrorist activities was the uncontrolled criticality and resultant explosion of the Soviet RBMK power reactor at Chernobyl in 1986.)... 

The issue of credibility and acceptability of the answers to a justification exercise are certainly outside of the scope of this workshop. 

Occupying the other end of the theoretical spectrum are approaches that ignore the statistical mechanical details in favor of an overall thermodynamic understanding. Pure thermodynamics, however, tends to be somewhat obscure (to those not skilled in the art) and must eventually fall back on some aspects of molecular interaction to validate its conclusions. Whatever favorite theory an author may champion, in order to be useful it must be able to not only explain experimental observations but also successfully predict as yet unobserved phenomena—as does any valid scientific theory. If too many unknown or variable parameters are included, theory tends to become a numerical game, an exercise in curve fitting that may lose its predictive capacity and credibility. 

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