Constraints and future trends

The expansion of aquatic animal risk analysis into other areas is a distinct possibility in the future. For instance, the current European legislation (e.g. Directive 2006/88) is driving a risk-based approach for characterizing aquaculture farms through risk ranking exercises, with improved identification 

Many published risk assessments have not attempted to assess consequences or have only superficially estimated likely impacts (Peeler et al, 2007). In part, this may be explained by the lack of available methodology to assess the environmental and economic costs of disease incursion. This is an important area for further development, which should include the integration of disease modelling to estimate the likely extent of outbreaks (Thrush et al., 2011). For some commodities (e.g. ornamental aquatic animals and bait fish) there is a need for greater delineation and understanding of the risk pathways involved in pathogen transmission. 

Although risk analysis has wide-ranging application to many areas of aquaculture, there is stiU potential for its development in areas where it is less well used (e.g. environmental, biological, operational, financial and social risks) (Arthur, 2008). 

There is an inevitable tension between free trade and maintaining disease freedom. In the past, countries have used health standards for trade protectionist reasons. Consequently, international agreements and standards have 

ARTHUR j.R. (2008), General principles of the risk analysis process and its application to aquaculture. In M.G. Bondad-Reantaso, J.R. Arthur and R.P. Subasinghe (eds). Understanding and Applying Risk Analysis in Aquaculture. FAO Fisheries and 

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