Climate Project

Keywords Climate change. Climate projections. Downscaling, Mediterranean, Uncertainties... 

This chapter summarizes climate projections presented by the recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC, both for the global scale and for the so-called European and Mediterranean region. Besides the IPCC projections, other results regarding the Mediterranean area will be reviewed as well. The emphasis will be mostly placed on temperature and precipitation projections, while other variables, such as wind, solar radiation, or sea level, will not be commented in depth. Some attention will be paid to methodologies used to develop projections, and the corresponding uncertainties will be commented. In general, projections will be given for the end of the current century. 

Besides the IPCC AR4, several specific works make reference to climate projections for Europe and/or the Mediterranean, some being related with the PRUDENCE project also. One particular study is that of Sanchez et al. [11] where... 

Therefore, as it is mentioned in the AR4, climate projections for the end of the century depend on the scenario and the particular model used to develop them. Temperature changes, and especially precipitation changes, show, for such temporal horizon, a broad range of values. On the other hand, projections for the next 2-4-decades are quite robust, since they depend less on long-term feedbacks and also on future greenhouse gases emissions. In fact, the climate of the next few years is tightly determined by past and recent emissions (climate commitment). 

Ho et al (2004) showed for SF6 that in low wind conditions short intense rain events accelerate gas exchange in the marine environment. Extending air-sea exchange by including this process is also of interest in the context of climate change, as climate projections suggest that the intensity of rain events will increase [Roeckner et al (2006)]. 

Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007) The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Phil Trans R Soc A 365 2053-2075... 

The regulations are also constantly changing. Practices that are common today will probably disappear over the next decade. It is imperative that the Project Manager stay abreast of the regulatory climate. Projects are built for today but also have to meet tomorrow s environmental thrusts. 

A past climate situation in which changes similar to the present occurred. Used in making climatic projections, climatic anomaly... 

Climate projections for Central Europe Since the IPCC reports focus on global climate change, other studies had to be used for the assessment of regional-scale climate impacts. Essential insights into this matter have been gained from Mayer (2007), Spekat et al. (2007), PIK (2005), KLIWA (2005a, b), and DMG (2007). 

Altogether, in contrast to the global trend, the regional-scale climate projections predict only moderate changes within the next decades. Therefore, the hazard due to harsh weather conditions is not expected to increase significantly on a medium-term scale. 

The impact of several of these parameters on the safe operation of the generic design has been assessed in detail in AP 1000 External Hazards Topic Report (Reference 3.2). These assessments include the possible influence of climate change, based on the information provided in the UK Climate Projections reports 2009study (UKCP09), with the key findings presented in a Briefing Report (Reference 3.4 ... 

DEFRA, UK Climate Projections Briefing Report, June 2009. DECC, Draft National Policy Statement for Nuclear Power Generation, November 2009. 

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