Political reforms, chemical industry

It is difficult to be at all quantitative as to when and to what degree these various possible applications will come to pass. Among the many factors which will determine the future energy scene are technical factors (advances in fuel cells, electric vehicles, electrolyzers, LH2 fuelled aircraft, etc.), environment factors (SO2 emissions, mining of fossil fuels, etc.) and, of course, the ubiquitous economics and politics which control all major human activities. What does seem clear is that, in the early years, synthetic fluid fuels will be manufactured by steam reforming, both for economic reasons and for institutional reasons associated with the expertise of the petroleum and gas industries. Electrolytic hydrogen will enter upon the scene more slowly, as it will be dependent upon the availability of cheap or surplus electricity and will tend to be produced by the chemical industry or electricity utilities rather than by the fuel industries. Moreover, its first use is likely to be for chemical synthesis, rather than as a fuel. 

Lastly, the U.S. government needs to make some political reforms that will ensure manufacturing is not forced to labor under significantly greater cost burdens than those of our international competitors. It is of critical importance to the U.S. chemical industry that additional domestic sources of natural gas are developed and that pipeline transport is facilitated, not hindered. Unless Congress takes meaningful and immediate action to increase domestic natural gas supplies, much of the U.S. basic chemical industry will almost certainly be forced overseas. 

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