Calculation of Forecasting Trend Value

Put parameter K into equation (3.18), and obtain the trend forecasting equation of F,  

According to moving average of AF, in each period (span 2, At = 1) and the 

The prediction trend value develops with extraneous root of Yf The closer it is to the forecast period, the closer the trend values and forecast values will be, which means a better effect of the prediction model  

For a small sample of historical data, the forecast model is less sensitive to the data The further it is away from the forecast period, the more obvious the deviation is. Therefore, we can use Eq. (3.18) for forecasting, and in order to get more desirable predicted values, it is recommended to use a large sample of historical data. 

The results obtained by using variance forecasting will be examined according to Cj, 8 and S, see Table 3.4. 

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