Big Rollover

Explain the future of oil, the "Big Rollover," and the Hubbert peak theory. 

Big Rollover—point at which global oil production peaks and then begins to decline. 

Many economists believe that the Big Rollover occurred, as worldwide production rates peak at 85 million barrels a day... 

The Big Rollover (when global oil production peaks, and begins to decline). Many economists believe the peak occurred in 2006 or 2007 at 85 million barrels per day (mbpd). Others believe production can go as high as 110 mbpd in the near future. 

The Hubbert peak theory describes how future world petroleum production will peak and then start the process of global decline. This decline will closely match the rate of former increase, as known oil reservoirs move to exhaustion. This theory also describes a method to calculate the peak using discovery and production rates, in combination with known oil reserves. The Big Rollover is another theory that predicts how global oil production will soon peak, and worldwide production will begin to decline. 

A number of trends are anticipated in oil production in the next 20 years, including the Big Rollover (when oil production peaks, and begins to decline). Many oil experts believe this will occur within the next 10 to 15 years. Most experts agree that the earth s estimated ultimately recoverable oil reserves are about 1.2 trillion (short-scale) barrels without oil sands and 3.74 trillion barrels with oil sands. Present global consumption is 84.6 million barrels a day or 30.7 billion barrels per year. The United States produces 4.9 billion barrels per year and refines more than 8.5 billion barrels per year, while importing more than 16 billion barrels per year for commercial needs. These reserves cannot be replaced once they are used, and some projections indicate that, at our present rate of consumption, our oil reserves will be depleted during the next 38.8 years to 122.2 years. At the end of 2008, the world had consumed 1.12 trillion barrels. 

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