Behavioral safety analysis consequences used effectively

Recently, however, limited use of best estimate plus uncertainty analysis methods has been undertaken. This is consistent with the international trend toward use of such methods. In this approach, more physically realistic models, assumptions, and plant data are used to yield analysis predictions that are more representative of expected behavior. This requires a corresponding detailed analysis of the uncertainties in the analysis and their effect on the calculated consequences. Typically, the probability of meeting a specific numerical safety criterion, such as a fuel centerline temperature limit, is evaluated together with the confidence limit that results from the uncertainty distributions associated with governing analysis parameters. The best estimate plus uncertainties approach addresses many of the problematic issues associated with conservative bounding analysis by... 

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