Autocorrelated data residuals charts

Since yMst is a random variable, SPM tools can be used to detect statistically significant changes. histXk) is highly autocorrelated. Use of traditional SPM charts for autocorrelated variables may yield erroneous results. An alternative SPM method for autocorrelated data is based on the development of a time series model, generation of the residuals between the values predicted by the model and the measured values, and monitoring of the residuals [1]. The residuals should be approximately normally and independently distributed with zero-mean and constant-variance if the time series model provides an accurate description of process behavior. Therefore, popular univariate SPM charts (such as x-chart, CUSUM, and EWMA charts) are applicable to the residuals. Residuals-based SPM is used to monitor lhist k). An AR model is used for representing st k) ... 

Autocorrelation in data affects the accuracy of the charts developed based on the iid assumption. One way to reduce the impact of autocorrelation is to estimate the value of the observation from a model and compute the error between the measured and estimated values. The errors, also called residuals, are assumed to have a Normal distribution with zero mean. Consequently regular SPM charts such as Shewhart or CUSUM charts could be used on the residuals to monitor process behavior. This method relies on the existence of a process model that can predict the observations at each sampling time. Various techniques for empirical model development are presented in Chapter 4. The most popular modeling technique for SPM has been time series models [1, 202] outlined in Section 4.4, because they have been used extensively in the statistics community, but in reality any dynamic model could be used to estimate the observations. If a good process model is available, the prediction errors (residual) e k) = y k)—y k) can be used to monitor the process status. If the model provides accurate predictions, the residuals have a Normal distribution and are independently distributed with mean zero and constant variance (equal to the prediction error variance). 

Two approaches are typically followed in this case. The first approach involves the analysis of the underlying statistical model of the autocorrelation (e.g., ARIMA model) and the monitoring of the residuals with traditional control charts for independent observations. The second approach develops monitoring schemes directly on the correlated data (e.g., EWMA control charts). 

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