AMMONIA PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND FORECASTS

Since no economical nitrogen fixation process that starts with nitrogen oxides has been discovered, ammonia has developed into the most important building block for synthetic nitrogen products worldwide. Prior to World War II, ammonia production capacity remained relatively stable. But during the war the need for explosives caused an increase in the production of ammonia for nitric acid manufacture. Then, after the war, the ammonia plants were used to manufacture fertilizers. As a result, there was a rapid increase in fertilizer consumption. The advantages of fertilizers were emphasized, and production capacity increased by leaps and bounds. 

From 1940 to 1950 the number of ammonia plants doubled then from 1950 to 1960 the number more than doubled again. Since 1963, there has been a revolution in ammonia-manufacturing technology. The advent of large singletrain plants has resulted in a large increase in production capacity, the shutdown of a number of smaller plants, and a reduction in manufacturing costs. Capacity tripled in the period from about 1958 to 1968. 

Worldwide, ammonia capacity grew from 119 million tonnes in 1980 to a peak of 141 million tonnes in 1989. Virtually all the growth in capacity occurred in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Asia. Between 1989 and 1995 capacity remained relatively flat, with increases in Asia being offset by closures in Europe and the FSU36. Ammonia demand grew at a rate of 3.2% per year from 1993 to 1998, but the growth rate is expected to slow to 0.5% per year from 1998 through 200237. 

capacity declined in the 1970s, and it continued to decline during the 1990 s by 5% to 10% to about 13 million tonnes per year. During the 1990 s U.S. ammonia capacity was between 13 million and 14 million tonnes per year with operating rates over 95%. The U.S. capacity is forecast to reach 17 million tonnes per year by 2005. Worldwide ammonia capacity is forecast to grow at over 2% per year and approach 165 million tonnes per year by 200557. 

In 2002 it was estimated that anhydrous ammonia is produced in about 80 countries, and about 85% of all ammonia production is used to make nitrogen fertilizers. About 6% of the ammonia production is applied directly to the fields36. In the United States the distribution of ammonia use differs slightly from the worldwide uses. In the USA only 80% of the ammonia is used to make fertilizers, but 20% is used as a direct application fertilizer. Chemical intermediates (such as acrylonitrile and caprolactam) account for 19% of the ammonia use while the remaining 1% is used in pulp and paper, metals and refrigeration applications37. 

---