The True Death Toll of Chernobyl

Most people want simple answers to simple questions. The simplicity of an answer is often more important than the truth, especially if the producer of a television show devotes 10 s to it. 

When and where will the next major airplane accident occur The question is not very complicated, yet nobody knows the answer. If someone knew, the accident could be prevented. Similarly, there are simple questions to which no scientifically correct answers can be given—at least not short ones. Kurt GOdel (1906-1978X a mathematician from Austria once even proved that whatever previous information we might have, it is always possible to ask a yes or no question that cannot be answered. 

The answer is very difficult to give becarrse the main health risk of the Chernobyl accident was the released radioactive material, which caused people, mostly in today s Belarus, to suffer extra radiation exposure. The level of radiation was not high enough to cause radiation sickness directly—but it increased the risk of certain types of cancer. However, cancer also occrrrs among people not exposed to radiation, and the reason for cancer carmot always be clearly identified So the only solution for om question about the number of victims is statistical risk assessment. 

---