The Material Consequences of Manipulating Risk on Paper

It is easy to cite examples of unscrupulous managers who manipulate risk calculations mathematically to serve their own interests. Following the privatization of British coal mines, one new mine manager claimed that he suspected the credibility of British Coal calculations and adjusted the accident rates for his mine accordingly. British miners countered that the company had manipulated accident rates on paper to support claims that privatization had n(5t diminished British Coal s safety record.  

The overall accident rate for the deep mine sector.. . cause that s the only one that I m involved with—is very encouraging. .. uh we. .. we set off from British Coal in January and we used British Coal s full year of accidents uh for ninety three, ninety four because we couldn t put any credibility, . . uh. . . rrn the accidents we saw for the nine months up to December, so we used the full year. .. and the rate was 13.33—so that was the yardstick we were using, uh. . . we re currently. standing at 9.74. Anon. (Interview with mine manager, UK), 1995] 

Workers can also underestimate the magnitude of risk, increasing the potential for disaster. They can easily become overconfident in their opinions, dismissing new data that contradicts old habits and beliefs. Rodrigue (1999) summarizes the results of research demonstrating how people adjust new data to fit their previously constructed frameworks  

When people artificially reduce risk— by manipulating the formulas by which they calculate risk or dismissing data that conflicts with preconceived notions of risk—they also increase the potential for disaster. Any manipulation that artificially increases or decreases the perception of risk can affect future estimates of risk and their outcomes throughout the entire Cycle. 

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